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Borussia Dortmund will act as hosts when they take on Bayern Munchen in the German Supercup at Signal Iduna Park, hoping to lift the trophy in front of their own fans for a second consecutive year.
Dortmund recently lost 4-0 to Liverpool in the last friendly they played, with Jurgen Klopp adamant that his side still has a lot of work to do ahead of the new season. The same Klopp however stated that he believes his side is capable of winning the German Supercup against Bayern and is “desperate” to do so. Last year Dortmund was clearly well off the pace set by Bayern in Bundesliga, but proved they can still compete when they defeated the bavarians on the road 3-0 in the spring. Dortmund lost Lewandowski to their rivals this summer but brought in very good replacements in the form of Immobile and Ramos, and Klopp will hope they will be ready to produce the goods in his system today.
Bayern was poor in friendlies so far and is coming off a deserved 2-1 loss against the MLS All Stars. Guardiola’s side does not seem yet ready for the new season and the absences of most players who were involved in the World Cup is clearly affecting Bayern’s level of play right now. Results in friendlies are not relevant in my opinion, but the level of play from the Bavarians was poor and they were weak especially in the defensive area. Bayern will have most players fit for this game but it`s highly likely that a lot of stars will miss, as the likes of Schweinsteiger and others barely played 10 minutes in the pre-season friendlies.
Team news & lineups
Dortmund has 2 huge missings in Hummels and Reus, while Gundogan and Sahin are also out. Otherwise, Klopp is expected to field pretty much his best side. Bayern Munchen can`t count on Rafinha, Alcantara and probably Ribery. Reports are also indicating that Schweinsteiger, Robben, Gotze, Lahm, Muller, Boateng and Reina (at least some of them) are likely to be left out of the match squad or start from the bench.
Borussia Dortmund: Weidenfeller – Piszczeck, Subotic, Sokratis, Schmelzer – Mikhtaryan, Kirch, Bender, Jojic – Aubemeyang, Immobile
Bayern Munchen: Neuer – Alaba, Martinez, Badstuber – Hojbjerg, Lahm, Rode, Bernat – Gotze, Shaqiri – Lewandowski
I think there`s a lot of value in the odds on Dortmund here. Indeed, Bayern is the better team, but circumstances favor Borussia ahead of this Super Cup. Playing at home is of course a big advantage, but the most important thing is that Dortmund seems more ready for this one, with Bayern missing a number of key players. Borussia is also the more motivated side, Klopp made that crystal clear. It`s their best chance to win a trophy this season while Bayern sees this more as a high profile friendly. It`s a similar situation with the Arsenal – Manchester City community shield match. Borussia proved a couple of months ago they can still beat Bayern, they won the Supercup 4-2 last season as well and I expect them to do it again this time around after a convincing performance in front of their own fans against a sub par Bayern side. My tip is Borussia Dortmund to lift the trophy. Prediction: Borussia Dortmund – Bayern Munchen 2-2 (3-2 extra time).
Pick: Dortmund to win the Supercup (lift the trophy)
Odds: 2.20 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.4
Event date: 13 August
