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Steaua will try to make it 4 wins in 4 matches in the Romanian Liga 1 when they host Pandurii Tg Jiu at Ghencea. Last season Pandurii escaped with a draw in Bucharest, but it was a meaningless game for Steaua who had the league title booked back then.
Current 2 time reigning Liga 1 champions Steaua were expected to have a hard time in the start of the season after losing their manager and a couple of key players in the summer, but the team managed to keep up the same level of football and intensity and started the season very good. Steaua is still undefeated after 9 games in all competitions, winning 7 of them and drawing two (against strong Astra in the Supercup and away against Aktobe in the UCL qualies). Steaua still looks like the best team in Romania, two classes above any other team with 1 or 2 exceptions. The hosts are on the back of a 1-0 away win against a pretty good CFR side and will now look to continue their marvelous home record, where they are winning about 90% of domestic games over the last 2 years, most of them with handicap.
Pandurii Tg. Jiu was a good team in Liga 1 in the past 2 or 3 seasons, fighting for a European placement, but last year they started to lose steam after they kept selling players and at the moment they look really bad with their football. The squad of Pandurii is far away from the quality it boosted 2 seasons ago and they started this season in poor fashion with just 2 points in the first 3 rounds, despite the fact that they met relatively poor opposition. More so, Pandurii has scored just 1 goal and went scoreless in the last 2 matches. Coach Petre Grigoras said that if his team does not improve vastly, they will lose by 5 goals to Steaua. Pandurii just sold another one of their best players, key center midfielder Breeveld – who was bought by today`s opponent, Steaua.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Team news & lineups
Steaua might decide to rest a few players in wake of the upcoming Champions League match against Ludogorets, but they are expected to field something close to their best lineup here. Team news for Pandurii are ok, no big squad problems.
Steaua: Arlauskis – Rapa, Varela, Tosca, Parvulescu – Prepelita, L. Filip – Ad. Popa, Stanciu, Cr. Tanase – Chipciu
Pandurii: Stanca – Ungurusan, Paraskevas, Elton, Momcilovic – P. Anton, Nistor, Radut – Buleica, Matulevicius, Nicoara
I am surprised that the bookies keep on giving these high odds to Steaua, especially at home, considering the hosts proved time and time again that they will complete the job against these lesser opponents from Liga 1. As I previously said the champions have an amazing home record in Romania and I see no reason for Steaua not to win this comfortably. The only issue is that Steaua has a key Champions League game against Ludogorets next week, but Steaua was in this situation 4 times already this season and won their domestic games each time without any problems. Even if Galca decides to rest 2-3 players Steaua has a deep squad, they will put pressure on Pandurii, play possession football and the visitors will surely crack rather soon. Pandurii is in a really bad spot right now and they have nothing going for them to get a result. My tip is Steaua to win and cover the 1,25 asian handicap. Prediction: Steaua Bucharest – Pandurii Tg. Jiu 3-0.
Later edit: forgot to say that match will be played without fans in the stands, but Steaua is used to these conditions and it never made a difference. They beat Craiova 3-1 in the last home game in the same circumstances.
Pick: Steaua (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.98
Event date: 15 August
I think Steaua will not win, and if they will win, they will surely not cover the handicap.
Here is why.
Reasons for this pick:
This is the match i have been waiting the entire week for.
1) Steaua will play without supporters, the stadium is serving a ban
2) Whenever Steaua played without Sanmartean, they had problems. Like in the first leg vs Aktobe, or vs Rapid in the cup, in the first match
3) Pandurii is desperately motivated. Pandurii has the 5th most expensive squad in Romania.
They have just 2 points after 3 matches in which they played weaker teams, ok, except CFR.
1-1 vs Craiova in a match they dominated but in which they scored late(70-smth minute) and were equalised even later, 80-smth minute). They were unlucky to have cent. def Erico injured in the first 10 minutes
0-0 at home vs CFR Cluj. They dominated and even missed a penalty
0-1 vs Ceahlaul. It was a match they took relaxed, Ceahlaul was crushed in the first 2 rounds, came to Tg Jiu as sure victim but they sacked their coach just before the game vs Pandurii, and this triggered a positive shock. They won 1-0 vs Pandurii in a match they were given odds 9 for a victory.
After the match vs Ceahlaul, Grigoras(very good coach of Pandurii) said that it was the worst match he has ever seen in his life. He said he can not explain what happened and can not imagine this will happen again.
Pandurii will hit the ground running in this match. Everything says they will give Steaua a run for the money. The fact that Sanmartean, a “Pirlo” of Romania is missing, the fact that Grigoras will use a 4-3-3 system, attacking system away vs the champion, the fact that they played 2-2 this spring in Ghencea, are all signs that this will be an interesting match.
Most of all, people must realise that i don’t bet against Steaua because i don’t like them.
I bet against them when i think the odds are wrong.
Except for the match at Aktobe, when i took Steaua under 1.5 goals, i usually am right when betting on/against them.
I think the problem of Pandurii in the first games was lack of game chemistry(in the first 2) and lack of concentration in the last one, which they lost. Ceahlaul came after 2 games in which they lost 4-0 and 4-1, that’s why they were so motivated.
Now motivation is all in Pandurii’s camp.
The fact that Steaua has won so many matches so far without actually playing good football, is also an argument for this pick.
great insight, it was like a second pick. obviously I would have disagreed with you.
1) they won without fans many times
2) in my opinion sanmartean is one of the most overated players to play in Liga 1 in the last decade
3) fair point
All in all I believe Steaua is well above teams like Pandurii and the odds keep being too high.