Betdistrict.com
High profile quarter final clash at Cincinnati, with Roger Federer and Andy Murray battling it out for a place in the semis.
I tipped Murray to lose yesterday against Isner but he pulled of the win in 3 sets (6-7 6-4 7-6). He played good tennis but still was very close to lose, having to save 2 match points in the 3rd set. Andy is clearly improving lately, he`s on track to regain his best form, but he`s still not there yet and I reckon he won`t get there this year. Murray has a lot of ups and downs during matches, does not seem to move at his best and seems to always be overpowered by the top players / in form youngsters this season. His second serve is poor and can be attacked. The back surgery last year took a lot from him and he does not seem ready yet to defeat the top guys – his win against Isner was just the 3rd one against a top 20 player this year, and Andy has yet to defeat a top 10 player in 2014 (actually in the last 14 months). Last week he lost to Tsonga in the Toronto quarters.
I watched Federer`s match with Monfils (6-4 4-6 6-3) just a couple of hours ago and I have to say it was without a doubt one of the best matches of the year, especially due to the second part of it. One might think that Roger was shaky and making mistakes to get to three sets, but actually Monfils put on a Nadal-like performance, returning everything, forcing Fed to hit another shot and actually creating tons of winners himself. Brilliant counter punching, shot making and net play between these two, but the point is that Federer played really well and it comes only two confirm his good form in 2014 and especially of late.
 |
Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Roger reached the final in all of his last three tournaments (Halle – won, Wimbledon and Toronto – lost) and even though he still has small variations in his level of play, he`s looking really solid, confident and motivated right now. He didn`t play his best match in the Toronto final against Tsonga, he was a little relaxed in his 3 set win over Pospisil in his first match at Cincy (but was never in danger of losing) and played excellent tennis against Monfils. Cincinnati has always been one of Roger`s favorite hunting grounds, the surface here is really fast, suits him perfectly and is one of his best tournaments.
Murray leads the H2H 11-10 (10-9 on hard) and had a particularly high rate of success against Federer in the Masters tournaments, but the two have always played close matches and clearly nobody holds any matchup advantage. Also, needles to say the circumstances are a little bit different this time with Andy still searching for his best level. Fedex won the last meeting of the H2H, a 4 set win this year at Australian Open.
I really fancy Federer to prevail here. Roger is not at his absolute best but he is playing at a very high level and against Monfils he produced some excellent tennis along with great mental strength to fend off difficult situations. He looked very motivated and he`s playing one of his favorite tournaments – Cincy has the surface that suits Federer best aside from grass and indoor hard, maybe on par with Dubai. Murray is in good form but he is playing worse tennis than Federer right now, and that is argument enough for Roger`s win considering that the matchup / H2H does not favor anybody. Andy does have an edge with his great return of serve but Federer had a poor serving performance against Monfils and he still prevailed, so he should be safe today from that point of view, with his level on serve expected to increase. Surface and form are the 2 main arguments for me to pick the Swiss here.
My tip is Federer to win. I will go with maximum stakes here despite having a 10 unit bet pending from yesterday and another 9 unit bet today on Steaua Bucharest. Big day for me, but the odds on Roger are just too high and will surely drop, making trading possible as well for the ones of you who fancy it. Prediction: Andy Murray – Roger Federer 5-7 6-4 3-6.
Pick: Federer
Odds: 2.36 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 13.60
Event date: 15 August
