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David Ferrer will try to overcome a 0-15 H2H deficit when he takes on a rejuvenated Roger Federer in the Cincinnati final.
I don`t think David Ferrer was expecting to have a chance to reach the final on these fast courts at Cincinnati but here he is, backing up a good quarter final showing at Toronto where he lost to today`s opponent, Federer, in 3 sets. Ferrer is playing very good tennis right now but it has to be said that he benefited from the luck of the draw – he was shaky in his first match against Kohlschreiber, needing 3 tiebreaks to win, went on to defeat a Youzhny who absolutely self destructed, than got trough a tight match against Robredo and easily dispatched Benneteau – not exactly the kind of opponents you expect to meet on the road to a Masters final. Overall, David is close to his best level of tennis right now, but I would not say he is there yet.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Federer produced two masterclass performances in his last two matches against Murray and Raonic, posting two easy wins to reach his 4th final in a row. Roger is playing extremely aggressive, rushing to the net, he is getting closer and closer to his absolute best level of tennis right now and he will be extremely motivated to win this final after losing in Wimbledon and Toronto. Excellent form for Federer both long term and short term, he almost looked unbeatable this week at Cincy and there`s just not much more to say aside for the fact that he`s playing brilliant tennis.
It is well known that Federer owns the H2H against Ferrer, he leads 15-0 (9-0 on hard) and David just can`t figure out how to play against him. The matchup analysis is key, we say in the semis how Federer shredded Raonic because he owns the matchup against him. However, note than when in very good form, Ferrer can pose problems to Federer, as seen last week in Toronto, when Federer needed 3 sets to win 6-3 4-6 6-3.
Listen, Ferrer is in good form but these courts at Cincinnati are not favoring him at all, while Federer is playing one of his favorite tournaments. Even if David managed to reach 3 sets last week at Toronto I`m sure this won`t happen again. Federer is playing better right now and the surface is much faster, much more to his liking. The swiss is clearly playing better tennis right now and the matchup he has against Ferrer should help him win in straight sets, maybe even blow out the Spaniard. The H2H and the fact that David can not play Fedex is key here, I can never envision Ferrer challenging Federer when the swiss is in this kind of form. Roger will attack Ferrer`s poor serve, come at the net and put pressure and David will surely crumble a few times, while Roger is serving very well and should generally keep serve with confidence. My tip is Federer to win in straight sets (-1,5 set handicap), a safer bet than the 4 game handicap and I`m going with maximum stakes here – solid bet, good odds, simple analysis, I`m very confident. Prediction: David Ferrer – Roger Federer 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Federer (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.80 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 17 August
