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Sunday will be a massive day for both sides, as they have a chance to make history and reach the Eurobasket after many, many years. Latvia leads group F and is virtually qualified, Romania has 3 wins and 1 loss, Sweden has 1 win and 3 losses and this is the penultimate game for both sides. Romania would virtually book a surprising qualification with a win, while Sweden needs to win to stay alive.
Sweden is not playing with the best team in these qualifiers, they miss their best two weapons (NBA players Jerebko and Taylor) and a couple of other key figures as well. It`s safe to say that this is the “B” side of Sweden, but even so they were expected to finish second ahead of a Romania side that has been one of the worst basketball teams in Europe in the last decade or so. The two met in the second game of the group with Romania winning in overtime at home, a deserving win but the match was very close. The first three games were very poor for Sweden but their best performance came last time out, almost defeating Latvia on the road, so they will look to replicate that performance.
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Romania has just one guy playing his basketball abroad, Vlad Moldoveanu from Turow (Euroleague team), but has benefited from Sweden`s struggles, from the fact that Slovakia is a very poor team and from some heroics by decent domestic players like Titus Nicoara or Cristian Silvasan. The romanians got a huge boost by beating Sweden at home after defeating Slovakia, went on to lose big against Latvia (despite playing decent) and barely edged Slovakia at home in their worst game so far with lots of turnovers and bad basketball, maybe also because Moldoveanu did not play well. Romania has a historic chance today but they need to improve if they are to beat Sweden on the road. This is a pretty good generation despite the lack of big names, a generation which proved itself at youth level.
Sweden is the better team overall but Romania looks to be more cohesive, more spirited and the atmosphere in the dressing room is at an all time high. Many Romanian guys played together at youth level and this gives them an edge, but the visitors have a big downside in size. Romania is playing with 2.00 m centers which is a big problem at this level, Sweden has much more size but could not take advantage in the first match, only getting 3+ rebounds. The visitors will probably give backup center Catalin Baciu more minutes, the tallest man in the team at 2.11, who had a really good game in the first meeting.
I`m not quite sure if Romania will be able to win this, but it should be a close, tightly contested affair and the handicap line at 7,5 seems a bit too high. Aside from size, home court advantage and a little more individual quality Sweden does not have any other advantages here, while the Romanians are the more cohesive and organized team, they look more determined and will surely be more motivated knowing that a win all but guarantees a place in Eurobasket 2015 – they also have most players in top form, as opposed to Sweden, and these are the things that count more than the names of the players (not like Sweden has any superstars in their team). Also Vlad Moldoveanu played a poor game against Slovakia so I expect him to be much better this time, which would be key, as he has the individual quality Romania generally lacks, he can create his own shot and is better than pretty much anyone on Sweden`s team. All in all I think we will see a narrow Sweden win and my tip is Romania to cover the 7,5 handicap. Odds on Romania and the line are dropping, so I`m taking this one early. Prediction: Sweden – Romania 72-69.
Pick: Romania (+7.5)
Odds: 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.84
Event date: 24 August
