England – Argentina

England and Argentina will square off at Twickenham in a rugby test match, the penultimate one of the year for the Three Lions before they take on rivals Australia next week. For Argentina, it will be the last test match after a long season, which included a great showing in the recent Rugby Championship, but also many losses against the top sides.

Since Eddie Jones took over as coach, England steadily affirmed itself as the 2nd best team in World Rugby. The three Lions are on a 12 match winning streak, won the Six Nations Grand Slam at the start of the year and played very well in the following tests matches. This November, England defeated an abysmal South Africa by 16 points and Fiji by 43 points in a try fest. The team looks solid in quality, gameplan and depth, though there are still question marks about their killer instinct. The Three Lions will definitely feel confident of securing a win against Argentina, while also looking ahead to their big match against Australia next week.

Argentina was great in the Rugby Championship and, at times, looked like the 3rd best side in the World behind New Zealand and England. They played very close matches against Australia and South Africa, but lost 3 out of 4. They were also the team that posed the biggest challenge to New Zealand in that tournament. Argentina approached these November tests with the objective to finally win matches after playing well but losing most of the games in the Rugby Championship. They started well with a big win over Japan, but lost by 4 points to Wales (desirvingly) and by 3 points to Scotland last week, in injury time, due to a huge error. Argentina looked tired in these last 2 matches on British soil, playing OK but making more errors than usual. They need to find an extra gear if they are to challenge England.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will be close to full strength. England will miss Launchbury. Argentina will stick with (mostly) the same standard lineup that played in the Rugby Championship and in these November tests. Nicholas Sanchez has avoided suspension and he should play, though he is slightly questionable. Sanchez missing would be an important blow for Argentina, but he should be able to start.

UPDATE: Sanchez is out. Hernandez takes over at No.10 and and Iglesias will probably take over kicking duties.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Jonny May, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Tom Wood, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Mako Vunipola

Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Matías Orlando, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Santiago González Iglesias, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Juan Martín Hernández, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera

England has generally dominated Argentina and was able to win the last 5 matches – three of them by more than 18 points. However, the last meeting took place in 2013 and much has changed since then.

England is the better team right now and Argentina did not look as good as usual in the last two tests against Wales and Scotland, but the Pumas did play good rugby and should not have lost against the Scots. Argentina is a team that can beat England in normal circumstances. Not now, as the circumstances are definitely not in their favor, but even so the point spread seems immense and I knew it was going to start dropping right since it came out.

Argentina’s fatigue will be a problem coming into this match and it remains to be seen if they can improve on their performance against Wales and Scotland. A similar performance would maybe be enough for Argentina to be competitive, but they need an improvement to challenge for the win. A downgrade in performance would represent a risk for Argentina to be embarrassed, but I believe they will be able to make one last push in their last game of the year. We know Argentina as a proud rugby nation which always puts on the effort, no exception – so with this being the last match of the year for them, I expect the Pumas to leave everything on the pitch.

Look for England to make less handling errors and dominate territory and possession, but Argentina’s defense has always been huge and they should not concede too many tries. It will be difficult for the English to break them down and they might need to mostly rely on penalties – just like Scotland last week.

The visitors will rely on their scrum, which should match England’s scrum and on their pace on the wings. As good as England has been, they did show lapses in focus lately and Argentina can take advantage of that to create havoc on counters, with the way they challenge the offside line and explode on the wings when they get in a good position. If Sanchez is fit to start, his boot will definitely provide the Pumas with valuable points that will keep the game close and within range for them. UPDATE: Sanchez is out, so Iglesias will take over kicking duties. He should be fine, though he might cost Argentina 2 or 3 points compared to if Sanchez would have started.

I can see England struggling to break down the Argies, going trough many phases until finally managing to find points, eating time off the clock. At the same time, Argentina should be able to put enough points on the board to simply give no time to England to cover the point spread. They are, without a doubt, more than capable of doing that.

18 points looks just too much for England to cover against one of the best rugby nations in the World. They could not cover such a spread against a similarly tired South Africa, a side that is going trough the worst period in the last decade, played a horrific game in England and still lost by only 16 points – before being embarrassed by Italy in the following week.

There`s also the fact that the big match for England will be next week against Australia, while for Argentina, this is it. England of course will be fired up to win this match, but they might not push their limits if they have a healthy lead in the closing stages – which would work in Argentina’s favor, as the Pumas are expected to get tired late on.

I expect an England win, maybe by double digits, but Argentina is a very good, proud rugby side that even in the current state of fatigue should not allow anyone to trump them over. My tip here is Argentina to cover the 18,5 handicap and I expect this to drop even further on this bet until game time. Prediction: England – Argentina 30 – 19.

Pick: Argentina +18,5
Odds: 1.95 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.50
Event date: 26 November