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Gibraltar will try to erase some of the shame they suffered in the first two matches of this Euro 2016 qualifyiers when they meet Georgia in the 3rd matchday of Group D.
I was actually expecting Gibraltar to be better than many believed, and I was surely fooled by their early friendly results, including a 0-0 draw with Slovakia, a 1-1 draw with Estonia or a 1-0 win over Malta. But it seems pretty obvious that official matches are a whole different business and Gibraltar was utterly blown out by Poland and Ireland in two 7-0 defeats. The hosts have a couple of players from lower English leagues, most notably Scott Wiseman (Preston, ex-Hull), but it really seems the retirement of captain and key player Higginbotham hurt this side a lot.
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Georgia was not bad at all in the 1-0 loss against Scotland over the weekend, they played a really solid defensive game but as always they struggled with creating chances. The visitors have a young team as they are looking to rebuild under promising manager Ketsbaia. Earlier in the group Georgia lost 1-2 at home to the Republic of Ireland and results have not really came their way recently, they seem unable to challenge good teams but should be able to win easy against a team like Gibraltar.
The Georgians are playing decent football right now and after seeing this Gibraltar side with Ireland and Poland, I really expect them to suffer another heavy loss – they just don`t have any clue and are playing chaotic football. I am counting on the youth and ambition of Georgia, these hungry youngsters will surely be eager to prove themselves against an accessible opponent and I doubt they will be satisfied with a close win. I don`t expect another 7-0 drubbing, but Georgia to cover a 2,25 goal handicap seems a solid bet to me. I reckon the 1.15-1.20 odds for a simple win are way off, as Gibraltar does not seem capable of competing against a professional opponent in an official match. My tip is Goergia to win with a 2,25 asian handicap – quite simple bet, but I will keep the stakes at a reasonable level. Prediction: Gibraltar – Georgia 0-3.
Pick: Georgia (-2,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.86 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.02
Event date: 14 October
