Greece – Romania

Greece and Romania will meet in the first round of the easiest Euro 2016 qualifying group. The two nations are in virtually no danger of missing out from Euro 2016 as the first two places automatically qualify, third place will play a playoff and the group is completed by the likes of Hungary, Finland, Northern Ireland and the Faroe Islands. Greece and Romania met last year in the playoffs for World Cup qualification, with Greece winning 3-1 at home and drawing 0-0 away.

Greece will kick off the campaign in front of an empty stadium – there will be no fans in the stands today. The hosts also have a new manager, with Claudio Ranieri taking over after Fernando Santos chose to leave. Greece had a pretty good World Cup, their football was not impressive but they managed to reach the Round 16 and almost qualified for the quarterfinals, losing at penalties against Costa Rica. The home side has pretty much the same bunch of players despite a couple missing and it seems Ranieri does not plan to change the defensive style of football Greece plays.

Romania had a decent World Cup qualifying campaign, they finished ahead of Turkey (good result) but lost to Greece in the playoffs. The visitors don`t have too many quality football players but the controversial manager Victor Piturca has a way of pulling off some decent results due to good tactical discipline and an organized defense, the zone where Romania also has its best players. Romania is a pretty decent team right now and should have little trouble qualifying, but a result today would be extremely welcome.

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Team news & lineups

Both teams can field decent lineups here, injuries and suspensions should not play a big part. It`s always hard to talk about team news in qualifiers as managers have their own agenda about who they are calling up.

Greece: Karnezis – Torosidis, Manolas, Papastathopoulos, Holebas – Maniatis, Tachtsidis, Samaris – Salpingidis, Samaras, Christodoulopoulos

Romania: Tătăruşanu – Tamaş, Chiricheş, D. Grigore, Raţ – Pintilii, Hoban – Chipciu, B. Stancu, Maxim – Marica

Greece is a little better and more experienced, but Romania has a few advantages that should balance the match: the visiting players have played much more competitive matches this season, Piturca has a much better chemistry with his squad than new guy Ranieri and there will be no fans in the stands, which will take a lot from Greece`s home court advantage. Also Romania`s nightmare from last years` playoffs, Mitroglou, is coming back after some injuries and is not in good shape, might not even start. My tip is Romania to cover the 0,5 handicap and get a good result. I reckon Piturca will be better prepared this time around after already facing Greece and his defensive tactics combined with the advantages Romania has should assure at least a draw for the visitors. A low scoring game also seems likely, but the odds for this handicap are way better. Prediction: Greece – Romania 1-1.

Pick: Romania (+0,5)
Odds: 1.90 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 7 September