Ireland – Argentina

Ireland and Argentina will square off at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, this being set to be the last International test of the year for both sides.

Ireland had a very successful campaign in the November tests to far, winning both games. They opened up with a magnificent 38-3 destruction of South Africa two weeks ago, and proceeded to defeat Fiji 23-20 last Saturday, a game in which Ireland made wholesale changes to the match squad – and even if they were expected to win by more, it was a good outing. The Irish are hands down one of the Top 4 rugby teams in the world right now, and most people will argue they are third best, ahead of Australia.

Argentina also had a solid couple of matches so far in November, exceeding expectations after a rather disappointing year. The Pumas held their own in England two weeks ago, losing by just 13 points, and went on to do a professional job last weekend in Italy, where they won 31-16. The results will surely give Argentina confidence, particularly the win over Italy – their first Tier 1 victory of the year (although it`s highly debatable if Italy is a Tier 1 team anymore).

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Team news & lineups:

Ireland has called up all the big guns after rotating the lineup against Fiji, and will use the best available starting XV here. Argentina will make three changes to the lineup that beat Italy.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Adam Byrne, 13 Chris Farrell, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Cian Healy

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Ramiro Moyano, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Tomas Lezana, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Santiago Garcia Botta

Credit to Argentina for the results they pulled of so far in November, but this will be their toughest test of the month. Italy is obviously nowhere near the level of Ireland, while England missed / rested a few players two weeks ago and didn`t have a good game, as they were more focused on their following clash with Australia.

Ireland however will be at full strength, fresh and ready to go, as they gave a break to all their important guys last week against Fiji. This will be an Irish team similar to the one that demolished South Africa two weeks ago, and they will be fully focused for this one. Not only is this their last test of the year, but the Irish are also eyeing revenge after Argentina derailed them in the 2015 RWC quarterfinals (I still consider my preview on that match ↗ to be one of my best).

A packed stadium will be pumped up for the potential vengeance and will demand it, and the Irish players will surely try and put as many points as possible past the Pumas.

Fact is, they have a good chance to do just that, as they have both the quality and the circumstances in their favor.

Argentina put up a lot of effort in the last two games, they are coming after a very long year and a grueling Rugby Championship a couple of months ago. They are playing more or less the same lineup every time, usually against top class opposition, and signs of fatigue are very likely to appear in this clash – particularly as it wouldn`t be the first time tired legs affect the Pumas.

I believe an in form, rested and motivated Ireland side has what it takes to win by more than 15 points against a possibly jaded Pumas team. Not more than 2 months ago, Argentina lost all six matches in the Rugby Championship by more than 15 points, and many of those were easier than this one, at least on paper. It`s undeniable that the team has taken a step back in quality over the past few years because of various reasons (especially due to denying eligibility foreign based players), and hasn`t been able to realistically compete with the absolute top teams during this time.

Weather is expected to be dry, so that will be another thing working in Ireland`s favor. All in all, my tip is Ireland to cover the 15,5 point handicap. Prediction: Ireland – Argentina 35 – 13.

Pick: Ireland -15,5
Odds: 1.92 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 25 November