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Ireland and Argentina will take the court at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, with a place in the Rugby World Cup semifinals on the line. The hoghly anticipated and evenly matched clash will be played on Sunday 18th October, but I am taking this one early, as I really doubt the odds will resist at the current level for much longer.
The two time reigning Six Nations champions, Ireland, came into this tournament with high expectations and indeed they delivered so far. They started off with two solid wins against Canada (50-7) and Romania (44-10) before having a scare against the Parisse-led Italy (16-9), but recovered well to rout France 24-9 in the final match, which decided the first place in Group D. The Shamrocks showed particularly impressive kicking, wing play and defense in their overall excellent rugby. There are few weak spots in this team.
Ireland never passed the quarterfinal stage in the Rugby World Cup, despite boosting some great generations of players. They seemed to have a massive chance 4 years ago, but the legendary golden generation led by Ronan O’Gara, Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell blew it against Wales. They have a similar chance this year, as they were the dominant team in Europe over the last two years and played well so far at the RWC – however, they will have to do it without some key players, most notably captain Paul O’Connell, who has ended his international career with injury in the France match.
Argentina’s emergence as a top rugby nation over the past 10 years can not be contested, but the Pumas did not look particularly hopeful coming into the RWC 2015, as they were handed a couple of key injuries. However, Argentina was borderline brilliant in the Pool stage. They pushed New Zealand to the limit in the opening match and blew out Georgia, Namibia and Tonga in the next three matches, with the 40-0 second half against Georgia being the best half of rugby we saw in this tournament. Argentina is the highest scoring team in the competition so far and only one of two teams, alongise Romania, to cover the handicap in all 4 group stage matches (see more in our Rwc2015 pool stage statistical analysis⇱).
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Team news & lineups:
Ireland have suddenly found themselves missing O’Connell, O’Mahony, O’Brien, all back row players – the two first choice flankers and the captain. No.10 Sexton, their instrumental playmaker and kicker is highly doubtful and him missing as well would be a disaster for the Shamrocks – though I reckon that in this dramatic situation, he will be forced. Argentina also has a new absentee, as Bosch is suspended.
Update: Sexton will play.
Update 2: After initially being named in the lineup, Sexton is eventually ruled out.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Johnny Sexton 10 Ian Madigan, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c), 7 Chris Henry, 6 Jordi Murphy, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy
Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Juan Martín Hernández, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Marcos Ayerza
Ireland won the previous five Head 2 Head meetings, including the two most recent ones played in 2014: 29-17 and 23-17. The overall Head 2 Head record between the two teams is 10-5 of the Shamrocks.
Ireland does not have too many weaknesses, but they were always going to be challenged in the scrum by Argentina and without O’Connell, O’Brien and O’Mahony, the Shamrocks will really have a big problem in this one. Expect Argentina to put on massive pressure at the breakdown and in set plays. The missing players affect Ireland badly and I do not believe that Ireland’s kicking game and wing play will be enough to cope with an unleashed Argentina. Actually, Argentina played fantastic on the wings as well in RWC2015 and if Sexton misses, Ireland will also lose the advantage in the goal kicking department. Even full back Rob Kearney admitted that the injuries are massive and could ruin Ireland’s dreams in this tournament.
Even without Ireland’s injuries I would fancy Argentina to cover a low spread in this one, but now the Pumas truly have a massive chance to pull off the so called upset. It seems like Ireland’s World Cup curse might continue this year and there`s a real debate to be made over who is the real favorite in this match. Argentina +3,5 seems to be the safest option here, but I am not content with the handicap line. The bookies are giving Ireland odds as low as 1.50, but they know they can`t go too high with the spread.
In these circumstances, I will go with the best value, Argentina to win. It could be a tight game, but I have made my case why I see an edge (a pretty solid edge) for the Pumas. They even almost beat New Zealand while Ireland, for all their excellence, have often struggled on the offensive end. Argentina will also play more on the center and will have better chances at scoring their penalties and conversions. But, however, you put it, the injuries are the key factor in this encounter.
At these odds, I have no doubt that a maximum stake bet is recommended and I expect the price on Ireland to skyrocket (actually it has already begun to go up). I believe Ireland’s World Cup dreams have went down along with O’Connell in that France game, so my tip is Argentina to win. Prediction: Ireland – Argentina 21 – 25.
Pick: Argentina
Odds: 2.75 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 17.5
Event date: 18 October
Hi.
You have a big courage again.
Good luck! 🙂
Bold choice, considering the important absences in Ireland team, I think the chances are good for your prediction.
@Nic Popescu: Life is short, you must have courage. I have seen too many situations where caution betting brings nothing good.
PS: Sorry for my english 🙂
what`s wrong with your english man? it`s fine 🙂
UPDATE: After initially being confirmed to start, Sexton was eventually ruled out for Ireland 2 hours ago.
Hi Rostick,
First off, I’d like to thank you for some great tips over the course of the rugby world cup. You’ve helped me develop as a rugby bettor and a number of your articles agree with my independent predictions, which is always assuring. My favorite article so far is the one on Canada vs Romania, which you summed up beautifully.
There are a few points in this article that i don’t agree with, however.
You state that “Argentina represent good value at odds of $2.75.”
These odds might appear good value, especially in light of Ireland’s key injuries, but there are certain elements that work against Argentina:
-Argentina’s missed tackles.
Their missed tackles count has been high in the last two Rugby championships (2014 and 2015). It was high again in this world cup vs the All Blacks (around 22% missed tackles) and vs Georgia (23%).
Ireland, meanwhile, have maintained an impressively low rate of missed tackles for the last few years.
-Ireland’s turnovers conceded has been impressively low through the six nations and the world cup- a reflection of their ability to handle the ball well and commit enough numbers to the breakdown. Argentina has been average in this area throughout the Rugby Championship.
-Stamina- probably slightly in favor of Ireland. Argentina tend to tire in the last 20 minutes- again, evident in the Rugby Championship over the last few years and in their showing vs the All Blacks in the world cup (though admittedly the All Blacks are the best in this area)
-Argentina tend to give away more penalties than their opponents.
-Argentina concede more line breaks than they generate- at least throughout the Rugby Championship. This might be hard on them since they’re playing against NZ, AUS and SA. But, I’d put Ireland on par with SA at the moment and maybe even Australia, so this stat does have at least some reliability.
Hey mate,
Thanks for the kind words and for the excellent input, which adds a lot of value to my preview. These kind of comments are the main reason for which I work full time on Betdistrict. Don`t know how I helped you to develop as a rugby bettor, you seem really knowledgeable about the sport. I like the “reassuring” phrase – that`s what quality tipping sites are mainly for, to bring info to compare with one`s own opinion, many don`t get that. I`ll try to comment on your arguments.
Argentina has a missed tackle ratio of 24% in this RWC, which is massive. But I think you make a mistake when you compare missed tackles numbers and turnover numbers, especially when you go as far as Six Nations vs. Rugby Championship. But also in this RWC, the two teams had totally different kinds of opposition. Hell, NZ missed almost 14% of the tackles in this RWC. Offensive teams are expected to miss more tackles.
Sure, the likes of England or Wales might be better than Argentina (might!), but it`s the style of play. MUCH easier to not miss tackles in Northern Hemisphere, much easier to keep turnover ratio low or not give away penalties. This world cup Ireland haven`t played anyone serious (we saw France yesterday) but, more importantly, they played NH teams. Argentina had to deal with New Zealand, with Tonga (not a great side, but they play a brand of Rugby which eats at your stats).
Put Ireland in the Rugby Championship with NZ, SA and AUS and we`ll see if their numbers stay the same. I do not agree, they are not on par with SA and AUS. Ireland is a great side, can beat those teams on a good day, but they are not on par with them. And take out 4 of the best 7-8 players from SA or AUS, they would not be the same. I expect AUS to struggle a bit today without 2 top players.
Agree that Argentina tends to tire. This is a worry. But with Ireland missing 4 key pieces, they might have this problem themselves, as the backups will have a really tough time at this level and possible lack of cohesion will make the Irish tire more than usual.
I agree that Ireland is a tough nut to crack. If they had a full squad, I would say that the bet on Argentina is worth it because of the odds and, as a personal opinion, I would have said Argentina will win.
But with 4 absolutely crucial injuries for Ireland, Argentina is the favorite here.
Of course I`m not saying that you are not bringing valid points. Sure, Argentina has a weakness in tackling. But Ireland is not the best carrying team, they barely made 500 meters in a weak group. And we`re talking about a bet on odds 2.75 here (about 2.50 now), not a 1.20 bet where a team has to have all the advantages.
What`s your input on the decimated Irish scrum? I don`t think they can do much if they are not competitive in the scrum.
ps: personally I think England – Australia 2 (2.25) with 10 units was my best pick, it went so smooth and I was never in doubt about that game. I got a bit lucky with Romania, even though it eventually went exactly like predicted (always the biggest satisfaction) and at great odds.
Good luck and may the best team win this match!
Rostick I hope this is a winner …
You make some great points.
I didn’t consider the contrasting styles of the Six Nations and the Rugby Championship. An example that justifies what you said is Scotland vs Samoa. Scotland’s missed tackles % is normally solid but against the unorthodox style of the Samoans, missed tackles were actually 29%, which is quite high by Scotland standards (source: http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/matchstats?gameId=182004&league=164205). And Samoa are not exactly a brilliant team- it’s just a style thing as you say.
This somewhat discredits my point about missed tackles, though i still think Ireland have the edge in this area.
Argentina’s stamina and discipline are probably the biggest concerns but you do make a strong case (especially with the odds at $2.50).
Regarding Ireland, i’m not sure that we should include Paul O Connor as a “key” injury. Henderson (his replacement) is actually about equal in skill to O Connor and was very close to starting vs France (ahead of Toner) anyway. I think they will miss O Connor’s leadership but there shouldn’t be any issues with the line-out etc. The other 3 are definitely key.
I stayed clear on betting the outcome of this game as I think the bookies have it about right. Though, your input has changed my position on this little a bit and I might consider Argentina to win.
My pick was a drop goal to be scored in the game (This was paying $5.50 at Bet 365 believe it or not- but has dropped in the last hour to $4). This compares well to others of this type- see: http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/ireland-v-argentina/drop-goal
The thing I loved about the Romania tip was it’s contrarian element. I followed Romania a little bit in the Six Nations (B) and after looking at the two teams and considering Canada’s short turn around (so important), I was sure that Romania at $2.50 was value. But almost every article online was saying the opposite so I questioned myself. It wasn’t until I viewed your tip that i was confident enough to place the bet. And sure, the outcome was somewhat lucky, but it only needed to succeed 40% of the time to be profitable and I think the true probability was more like 50-55%.
Your comment entered moderation because of the links, sorry about that.
Well, we both made some good points I guess. I think O’Connell was a big blow. Sure, a bit overrated because of the “legend” status, but he was still very important.
Even though it did not happen, I have to say the drop goal would not have been a bad bet. It would have made sense (if Sexton was available it would have made perfect sense).
Very happy I could help with Romania :). Hope you will stick around on Betdistrict, love the input you brought to this preview.
Beautiful match, I backed the mighty Pumas today. Amazing how Ireland came back from a 17 point lead, when it was 20-23 (if im not wrong) i thought Ireland would win the match, however the Pumas could manage the pressure and finally went on to win the match. Credit to Ireland today and it believe that injuries took them off from the World Cup, I think with Sexton , O’Brien and O’Connell they would have won the match. Nice rugby previews mate , really accurate!! Keep on like this! Always important to read someone who knows before betting!
I also believed Ireland has the first chance when they pulled back to 20-23, I was scared that Argentina was tiring. Indeed, after watching the game, I think with a full squad Ireland would have won. But what a performance from the Pumas! Thanks for the praise, now hoping for profit in Australia’s match.