Federer – Raonic

Milos Raonic and his big serve will face the toughest test ever in the Wimbledon semifinals against 7 time champion Roger Federer.

Federer has been brilliant so far in the tournament, losing just one set (against Wawrinka) and conceding just one break of serve, against the same opponent. I backed Federer to win Wimbledon prior to the start of the competition and of course I am sticking with that pick. The Swiss Maestro had a great year so far, he challenged and defeated all top players except for Nadal and the only dip in form was in Rome and Roland Garros, when his wife gave birth. Federer looked very focused here at SW19 – we could see his unusually optimistic statements at the start of Wimbledon, which means his confidence is back – which is the key to his game along with his serve. The time Federer was troubled in the last two weeks was in the Wawrinka match, when he lost the first set, but he turned it around brilliantly. Albeit Stan had some stomach problems, he was at his best level, so all credit must go to Federer. He had an incredible low number of unforced errors, 14. When he`s focused, his serve is working and he`s making so few unforced errors, Federer is virtually unbeatable on grass.

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I fancied Raonic to do some damage in this tournament and the Canadian did not disappoint: just 2 sets lost so far, top class serving, good overall level of tennis, defeating Nishikori and Kyrgios. Two days ago I actually thought he had a shot to reach the final, but at this point I think his chances against Roger are slim at best.

Listen, Raonic a solid player in good form and his serve will always keep him close to any opponent, but having watched his match with Kyrgios yesterday after Wawrinka – Federer, it was like a totally different level of tennis – and not because of the different styles, but simply because of the shots quality, movement and so on. Raonic did his thing, served great, controlled the points with his forehand, but when taken out of the comfort zone he could not hit a good backhand, he could not cover the court, and I expect him to suffer big time against Roger in these circumstances. The matchup is a big advantage for Federer, as the Swiss has a 4-0 advantage in that department and he`s known as a magnificent player against big servers (remember his H2H record against Roddick)- especially on grass.

Expect Raonic to be solid on serve, but he will also be a non factor on the return. Expect a few tiebreaks and 1 or 2 breaks from Federer to seal the deal. My tip is Federer to win with a -1,5 set handicap and we get some decent odds on this bet. Prediction: Roger Federer – Milos Raonic 6-4 7-6 6-7 6-3.

Pick: Federer (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.68 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.12
Event date: 4 July