Wimbledon preview – Federer’s best chance to win his 18th major

I have been a constant opposer of the idea that Roger Federer can’t compete at the best level anymore. For younger readers, the swiss was considered “done” even since late 2008, after his Wimbledon loss to Nadal, and then consistently dubbed as washed up year after year – yet he still produced the goods and won major titles. Nevertheless, time does not forgive, and this time around Federer is truly starting to fade away at almost 33 years of age. Not just yet, but can we expect Federer to win Grand Slams two years from now? Likely No. Can he do it at least one more time until then? Yes. Can Federer win Wimbledon this year? Yes.

Pete Sampras: “That’s why he’s playing, I don’t think he’s playing for anything else but to win some more majors.”

The 2014 Wimbledon Championships seem to be the most unpredictable in a long time, but ironically this might just be Roger Federer’s best chance to get his hands on that elusive 18th Grand Slam title. The Swiss Maestro has not won a major since exactly 2 years, when he beat Andy Murray in 4 sets at Wimbledon 2012 under a closed roof. Federer had a miserable 2013, but came back strong this year and could potentially upset the odds (which are as high as 7.00) to put some more distance between him and Nadal in Grand Slam titles. Why is this Federer’s best (and last?) chance to win a Slam? Who are the other favorites, and who could potentially stop the Swiss? Preview and analysis below.

*Note: betting wise, when looking to post the odds for each player to win, I noticed that Youwin has the best prices for the Wimbledon outright market.

Roger Federer

Game – Roger has played some of his best tennis this year until the birth of his second pair of twins, after which he lost in the Rome 1st round and Roland Garros quarters. Nevertheless, he came back to win Halle last week, playing pretty good tennis. Highlights of the year include the Australian Open semifinal, Indian Wells final or Dubai title. Most importantly, he proved he can still beat the top guys: Djokovic (twice), Murray, Berdych, Gasquet or Tsonga, as well as the young guns: Nishikori or Dolgopolov.

Surface – Federer is one of the most successful grass court players of all time and between the current top guys, he is by far the most well adjusted on the green. The All England Lawn Tennis Club particularly is his backyard, his 7 titles here creating a legacy similar to Nadal’s at Roland Garros. According to his ‘executioner’ last year, Stakhovsky, “you`re not just playing Federer: you`re playing the surface, you`re playing his legacy”.

Morale – “I feel I can win Wimbledon”. “Everything works fine, I can rely on all my shots, I have no pain”. “I feel I can decide the outcome of matches this year”. These are statements we couldn`t hear last year. Clearly Roger is playing well, enjoying his tennis and is in good shape mentally. He`s happy on a personal level and the last time he had twins, he won Wimbledon that year.

Draw – An easy draw is always crucial, and Federer has it. Just two potential dark horses in his way to the quarters, Benneteau and Hewitt/Janowicz, but they are in poor form. The draw, strictly theoretically: R1: Lorenzi, R2: Benneteau, R3: Giraldo/Mahut, R4: Janowicz/Hewitt, QF: Wawrinka, SF: Nadal, F: Djokovic/Murray.

Opposition

Novak Djokovic – odds 2.88 @ Youwin – last years’ finalist is the odds-on favorite to win the tournament and by far the biggest threat to Federer in my eyes. Nole has played the best tennis on the tour this year despite failing to win a Grand Slam and will be eager to bounce back after the Roland Garros defeat. The problem for him is that he`s the least adjusted player on grass between the Top 4, his hand is stil not 100% according to reports and his style of play suits Federer, especially on the green.

Rafael Nadal – 5.00 – in other circumstances I could have even tipped Nadal to win at The All England Lawn Tennis Club, but in current conditions there`s no way that he will get a sniff at that Wimbledon crown. Rafa got just 1 win in his last two SW19 showings (lost to Rosol, Darcis), has obviously struggled this year and most importantly he seems drained after a superhuman effort to win Roland Garros. It was obvious that the 9th trophy in Paris meant so much to Nadal, he fought like an insane man to regain his best level of play and finally did it. His reaction said it all: holding that trophy like a baby and bursting in tears. Not that Nadal is emotionless, but somehow I never expected him to show it in a final ceremony. His physical condition was obvious in Halle, where he went out early. Indeed, he was not motivated, but I`m pretty sure he was not looking to get bageled by Brown – something which was very close to happening. I can see Nadal leaving Wimbledon early again despite an accessible draw, but if he somehow reaches the semis though, it will be a problem for Federer because of the matchup. Still, Fedex will hold a decent chance on grass against his nemesis.

Andy Murray – 6.00 – Andy will look to defend his title, but he`s not ready yet after last years’ surgery. He struggled all year, found some form to reach the Roland Garros semis, but was heavily exposed by Nadal. Expect Murray to grind his way to a quarterfinal or to the semis, but a tip on him to go further would be unwise – he needs more time to challenge for Grand Slams again – even at Wimbledon, on grass.

Stan Wawrinka – 31.00 – Stan got to a different level this year, winning a Grand Slam and backing it up with a Masters 1000 win, but his inconsistency is still there. He lost in the Roland Garros 1st round and most importantly, his game is not adjusted for grass right now. I can’t see Stan making it past the 4th round, say quarterfinals at best.

Dark horses

Grigor Dimitrov – 23.00 – he`s the 5th favorite to win the trophy ahead of Wawrinka, and rightly so. The Bulgarian had a great season and he is a very good grass court player, winning the London title just one week ago (destroying Wawrinka on the way). It looks like this is the perfect time for Dimitrov to shine in a Grand Slam and in certain circumstances I can see him reaching the semifinals. However, his lack of experience makes it unlikely that he will go all the way.

Milos Raonic – 61.00 – Raonic upped the tempo this year, producing some solid performances and really getting comfortable in that Top 10 zone. He can beat anyone when his serve is working well, and on grass Milos stands a good chance of going far. His problem is similar to the one all big servers have in Grand Slams: it`s next to impossible to keep up the highest level on serve for two weeks of 3 out of 5 matches.

Tomas Berdych – 51.00 – a former Wimbledon finalists, he also suffered a lot of early exits in the Championships. Tomas will always be a contender for the final stages of Grand Slams but looking at his horrible, slow performance in Roland Garros against Gulbis, I just can’t see him pushing further than the quarterfinals this year.

Kei Nishikori – 91.00 – Emerging talent, good on grass, but not ready for the big step yet. He`s not even 100% fit and was exposed by Federer in the Halle semifinals. He should exit Wimbledon in the first week.

Tsonga, Gasquet, Ferrer, Gulbis, F. Lopez, Monfils – the first two are out of form, Ferrer must be at his absolute best to reach the semifinals on grass, as he hates the surface. Gulbis has an abysmal record on the green, he has a long way to go before being considered a contender on this surface. Lopez is normally not a contender, but his brilliant form with titles on Grass at Queens and Eastbourne could get him a quarterfinal showing over Wawrinka. Monfils could go deep in the tournament due to an easy draw if my prediction against Nadal comes true. None of these is a realistic challenger for a final at SW19.

 
BETDISTRICT PREDICTION

Quarterfinals: Djokovic – Berdych, Murray – Dimitrov, Lopez – Federer, Raonic – Monfils

Semifinals: Djokovic – Dimitrov, Federer – Raonic

Final: Djokovic – Federer