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Club Brugge is a huge odds favorite to qualify against Aalborg in this Europa League matchup, but it might not be so easy for the Belgian side – especially away from home.
Aalborg had a shaky season so far with a lot of ups and downs, they are 6th in the Danish League and had a poor end of 2014, especially domestically. Denmark is in the mid season break right now so Aalborg will enter this match without any official preparation and they have been poor in friendlies, so apparently things do not look good. However, Aalborg is a very strong home team and earlier in the group stage managed to win all home games against Steaua, Dynamo Kiev and Rio Ave without conceding a single goal – an impressive feat which allowed them to qualify for the KO round.
Club Brugge has been the team to beat this year in Belgium, they are playing truly solid, especially on the offensive end. Still, the visitors seem to have lost some form recently, just one win in the last 3 games and not an impressive one – being dominated for long stretches by rivals Cercle Brugge. Additionally, the league leaders have been obviously less dominant away from home, winning less than 50% of their road matches in the Pro League (6 of 13). On the other hand, they gained 7 points on the road in the Europa League, beating FC Copenhagen 4-0 in the process. They also beat Brondby 2-0 in the qualifying stages.
Bet on Aalborg vs. Club Brugge with the highest football odds at Pinnacle Sports!
Team news: There are not reports about big absences to handicap either of the two sides, but Club Brugge will not be able to count on it`s winter transfers, Claudemir and Denswil.
Club Brugge is surely looking much better than Aalborg, but playing in Demnark won’t be easy. Aalborg will look to get a 4th straight home win in the Europa League and to me they look good value to get at least a draw. The hosts defeated teams of Brugge`s caliber or better (Steaua, Dynamo Kiev) when they were in poor domestic form, so there`s no reason why they should not do it again. The lack of competitive matches is a downside, but the Belgians have been far less impressive when playing away from home, so all in all I reckon home court advantage will be decisive here. There`s also the fact that the visitors surely won`t mind a draw, as long as it`s not goalless.
The 4-0 win against Copenhagen earlier this season can shed a shadow over my choice, but I reckon it`s safe to say it was an accident. My tip is Aalborg +0,5 handicap, the odds on a Brugge win are just unreasonably low and it`s not right to price them slightly over 2.00 just because they beat Brondby and Copenhagen on the road this season. Aalborg is a different team, more physical and they are unlikely to suffer the same fate as their Danish rivals. Prediction: Aalborg – Club Brugge 1-1.
Pick: Aalborg +0,5
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.16
Event date: 19 February
