Milan – Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid is a favorite to defeat Milan at San Siro and the odds are dropping big-time on the spanish side, but it could be harder than expected against an experienced and desperate Milan team.

Clearly Milan’s focus is 100% on the Champions League. They are 9th in the league and can only hope for an Europa League finish, while in the Coppa Italia they were knocked out by Udinese. This is the match of the season so far for Milan but their current form makes them underdogs for the qualification. After a draw at home with Torino and a 3-1 defeat at Napoli, Milan barely won 1-0 in the last league round at San Siro against Bologna thanks to a late Balotelli super-goal. The appointment of Seedorf did not chance anything in the way Milan plays – the same chaotic attacking style, the same insecurity in defense. It will be interesting to see Seedorf in his first Champions League match as manager. Milan is again hit by an injury crisis for the Atletico game: Robinho, Bonera, Cristante, El Shaarawy, Emanuelson, Birsa, Montolivo, Muntari and Honda are all out.

AC Milan lineup: Abbiati – Zaccardo, Rami, Constant, De Sciglio – De Jong, Essien – Taarabt, Kaka, Pazzini – Balotelli

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Atletico is tied for points for the first place in La Liga and they have a superb season so far but they are in clearly decreasing form: in 2014 Atletico struggled to win many matches and prior to beating Valaldolid 3-0 in the weekend, they had 3 consecutive losses without scoring a single goal – including a drubbing by rivals Real Madrid (0-3). Diego Costa is nowhere to be found in 2014 and he is not the decisive player for Atletico anymore, at least at the moment. For this game Luis, Tiago and Manquillo are unavailable for Atletico Madrid.

Atletico Madrid lineup: Courtois – Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Insua – Gabi, Suarez, Koke, Turan – Villa, Diego Costa

Milan is in wretched form and is suffering an injury crisis. But they do have their advantages: they are strong at home even in this horrible season, just 2 losses in Serie A and zero losses in Champions League, drawing with Barcelona. The injury crisis is not new so Milan can deal with it at least in part. The key for the italians is that they are so much more experienced at this level and they could use that against a better Atletico Madrid side, but a side which is also on a downtrend in form. The desperation and motivation could also count for the hosts. Balotelli is in absolute top form so maybe he could bag one goal today, which should be enough for at least a draw. I am taking AC Milan not to lose. The draw is the more likely outcome but Milan can always surprise everyone at San Siro – like they did last year vs. Barcelona (2-0). My tip is 1x (asian handicap +0,5). Correct score prediction would be AC Milan – Atletico Madrid 1-1. I don`t think Atletico deserves so much trust, at least not yet and the odds are just to high on Milan to win or draw.

Pick: AC Milan (+0,5)
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.29
Event date: 19 February