ACS Poli – FCSB

ACS Poli Timisoara will host FC FCSB in the Romanian Cup Round of Last 32, and the visitors are expected to field an experimental lineup in this clash.

ACS Poli is sitting on a warm 9th place in the Romanian Liga 1 and so far they seem to be on track to avoid relegation, which is their main objective. The hosts are an organized, disciplined and feisty side and are in good form, having not lost in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), including a 1-1 draw at reigning champions Viitorul in their previous game. However, the last time they lost it was against FCSB, and it was an utter destruction in Bucharest: 0-7.

FC FCSB is second in the league and had an exceptional run of form back in October, looking like the team to beat in Romania, but they cooled off big time lately. The visitors have lost three straight without scoring a goal, the manager is on the brink of getting fired, and atmosphere in the squad is on the brink of being toxic. Last time out, FCSB lost 0-2 against Astra Giurgiu (6th place in Romania), playing very poor football.

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Team news & lineups:

ACS Poli has reported regular center back Seroni as unavailable, while regular wing back Cretu could come back from injury. The hosts might rotate the lineup a bit, but nothing major.

FCSB is expected to make wholesale changes and field an experimental starting XI here. The Romanian press suggests it will be a team full of 16 year olds and guys who rarely make the squad in the league. While I don`t think it will be that bad, it will surely be a very weakened lineup composed of youngsters, fringe players and maybe 2-3 regulars.

ACS Poli: Straton – Straut, Melinte, Canu, Ciucur – Artean – Munteanu, Vasvari, Croitoru, Birnoi – Draghici

FCSB: Vlad – Pleasca, Artur Jorge, Filip, Mihai – Achim, Popescu – Benzar, Man, De Amorim – Alibec

FCSB has a history of struggling against inferior teams in the Cup and getting knocked out early, as the owner has made it clear that he only cares about finishing Top 2 in the league every year, to get a shot at the Champions League money.

Looking at the projected lineup of FCSB, another early exit in the Cup could well be on the cards.

While the visitors have very low motivation here, ACS Poli will be eager to claim a famous scalp, and also avenge that humiliating 0-7 defeat they suffered in Bucharest a few weeks ago. The coach and the players explicitly said that they are pumped up for this chance at revenge.

ACS Poli is not an easy side to defeat at home, they are organized and disciplined, and that should work well against a makeshift FCSB lineup which will not only lack quality, but also playing relations and tactical consistency.

The players on the pitch will be more or less of the same quality, probably a small edge for FCSB. But ACS Poli will play at home, will be better organized and much more motivated. Cold weather and a projected poor pitch will also help them.

ACS Poli has a good chance to qualify and should be able to at least push this into overtime. Value is definitely on the hosts, so I will bet on them. My tip is ACS Poli to cover the +0,5 handicap (1x double chance) and given the particular circumstances, I will invest high stakes. Odds might drop. Prediction: ACS Poli – FCSB 1-0.

Pick: 1X
Odds: 1.82 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.38
Event date: 30 November