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Update: Pick was posted on August 14th, match was interrupted at 2-1 for Rufin in the 1st set with Ungur serving and will continue today, August 15th.
The sixth seed and No. 136 ATP Adrian Ungur will take on frenchman Guillaume Rufin (455 ATP) in the second round of the Cordenons challenger. The surface is red clay.
Ungur did not play his best tennis in the first part of the 2014 season – he did produce good performances at times like the 2nd round in ATP Bucharest (passed qualies, beat V. Pospisil) or the SF`s at Baranquilla challenger, but was inconsistent and dropped over 30 places in the rankings. However, Ungur suddenly raised his level and produced arguably the best tennis he can play last week when he won a very strong San Marino challenger, beating the likes of Volandri or Montanes before destroying an in form Veic 6-1 6-0 in the final. It was sublime, offensive tennis from Ungur, the kind of level which saw him break the Top 80 in 2009. Of course, questions were raised if Ungur will have the fitness and/or motivation to compete at the same level here in Cordenons, but he shook off the doubters with a convincing 6-4 6-3 win over Sikora in the first round. It was not the strongest opponent, but Ungur played a clean game and looks fit and motivated – I bet he knows that, going on 30 years old, this might be his last chance to make a push for the Top 100, get into some slams, earn some more money to have a good life after tennis.
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Rufin is surely a much better player than his ranking suggests, I`d say that on his best day he is slightly better than Ungur, or at least at the same level. However, the 24 year old frenchman is far from his old self, he struggles with injuries last year and this year and will need a lot of time to regain a good level of tennis. He has a big handicap to overcome after being out for a long time and not managing to be fit for sustained periods of time. Rufin had zero notable results this year, did not play too many matches and his biggest win was against Olivier Rochus, a player also miles away from his best and struggling with fitness. Here in the first round at Cordenons Rufin needed 3 sets to get past a modest Adelchi Virgili.
The H2H is 1-0 for Rufin, but his win on clay in a futures tournament in 2009 has basically zero relevance in today`s circumstances. The H2H analysis or the matchup analysis will not tell us too much ahead of this Cordenons challenger 2nd round.
The odds on Ungur are way too high here, there`s no doubt about that and they will probably fall around 1.40 come match time (which is pretty early, 10:00 GMT). The Romanian played ATP level tennis last week and seemed to carry his good form this week as well, while Rufin is struggling to get fit and get 1-2 wins on challenger draws in order to slowly get back to the top 200. If this match was played in the first round maybe I would have some doubts about Ungur`s fitness, as he is an offensive player who needs to be fit and motivated to play well – but his solid performance against Sikora is a confirmation that he came to Cordenons challenger ready to play at the same level as he did last week. Picking a guy to win in straight sets is always a bit tricky, but considering the analysis and the excellent value of the odds I will take a calculated risk – my tip is Ungur to win with 1,5 set handicap and I will invest maximum stakes on this bet. Prediction: Adrian Ungur – Guillaume Rufin 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Ungur (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 2.33 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 13.3
Event date: 14 August
