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One of the title favorites in Allsvenskan, AIK Solna, takes on surprising league leaders Gefle in the 3rd round.
Malmo will be a hard team to dethrone this season, but AIK is surely one of the sides that made serious investments and can at least challenge for the title – as proved in the previous round, when AIK held the Champions to a 0-0 draw on the road. AIK defended very well in that game and it was an upgrade after a rather disappointing first round, where they didn’t play so well – despite defeating Halmstad 2-1. Similar to the Malmo match, AIK was not impressive up front in that match, playing a sterile possession game against a very poor side.
Gefle is surprisingly sitting on the first place after two rounds, thanks to two 2-0 wins over Falkenberg and Kalmar. The visitors played some excellent defensive football and are yet to concede a goal, but it remains to be seen how will they look against a stronger opponent. After all, Gefle is one of the worst sides in the division on paper, expected to be in the relegation mix at the start of the season.
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Team news: There are no new injuries or suspensions for either side, so we should see AIK and Gefle field similar lineups to the ones that got them solid results in the last round. AIK continues to miss key midfielders Dickson Etuhu and Nabil Bahoui.
Gefle surely won`t be able to keep the wins coming and AIK is rightfully favored to win at odds of about 1.45. However, the hosts have been far from impressive on the offensive end so far, while Gefle is yet to concede a goal and will come into this match with a lot of confidence. Expect AIK to dominate possession, but as we have seen in the two matches so far, they will build attacks it in a slow, sterile way – making it very hard to break down an organized defense like Gefle proved to have, at least right now.
Expect AIK to win a close and low scoring affair, though I would not be surprised if Gefle actually holds for a 0-0 draw. I don`t expect the visitors to care much about offense and AIK defended extremely well against Malmo, so my tip here is on the under / over market, specifically under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: AIK Solna – Gefle 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.11 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.88
Event date: 12 April
