Ajax – Dnipro

Everything to play for in Amsterdam, with Ajax trailing 1-0 after losing the first leg in Ukraine. It was a very tight clash, with Ajax holding most of the possession, but Dnipro making the most of its chances.

The hosts are showcasing some excellent football right now, seems like they reached their top level just at the right time. The Dnipro loss was the only one in the previous 9 matches for Ajax in all competitions, a timespan in which they recorded 7 wins (including beating Legia twice and PSV on the road). Frank de Boer stated that he expects Dnipro to sit back, but that his side will be patient and not go in full attack mode.

Dnipro is having a great season, the visitors are attacking Champions League football in Ukraine, as they sit in the third place domestically, just one point behind Shakhtar. Dnipro is in very good form as well, winning 4 games on the spin in all competitions, without allowing a single goal.

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Team news & lineups:

Ajax is healthier than in the first leg, getting some players back from injuries, but Boilesen is a heavy doubt. Dnipro will miss key players Zozulya, Rotan and Fedetskyi, as well as coach Markevych, who is ill and did not travel.

Ajax: Cillessen – Van Rhijn, Viergever, Veltman, Moisander – Serero, Bazoer, Klaassen – El Ghazi, Schone, Milik

Dnipro: Boyko – Egidio, Leo Matos, Douglas, Cheberyachko – Fedorchuk, Kankava, Bezus, Konoplyanka, Bruno Gama – Seleznyov

Looking at Frank De Boer’s comments and at how the first leg unfolded, this really looks like an underish game. Clearly Ajax will not be in a hurry and will wait patiently for some openings, focusing more on defense – they can not allow to grant Dnipro the crucial away goal. With the visitors all but guaranteed to sit back and defend cautiously (and not make too many tactical changes without their manager present), I fully expect a maximum number of two goals on the under over market in this Europa League clash.

As a result, my tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored and I will bet a reasonable stake of 8 units on this pick. Prediction: Ajax – Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 1-0 (Ajax to qualify at penalties).

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.92 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 19 March