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Ajax Amsterdam hosts SBV Excelsior Rotterdam in the 26th round of the Dutch Eredivisie.
Ajax is in very good form at the moment, playing the best football they played all season … in the last two games they destroyed Legia in the Europa League 3-0 in Warsaw (after 1-0 at home) and beat PSV 3-1 in Eindhoven! Overall Ajax won 5 times and drawn 1 time in the last 6 matches. Unfortunately the league is already lost with PSV 14 points ahead, but Ajax can put a real hold to the 2nd place with a win today … now hosts are 6 points in front of Alkmaar. Sigthorsson, Fischer and Zimling are injured and will not play today. Milk is a small doubt but according to the coaching staff he is training normally and will probably start.
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Excelsior sits on the 13th place but they are pretty safe from relegation … 8 points clear of the red zone. Visitors are playing very good football in the last month and a half: previous 7 games saw Excelsior record 3 wins, 3 draws and a loss. The sole loss was not bad either: a very good performance in the derby with Feyenoord away from home, ended 2-3. Team news for Excelsior say that Gouriye and Coutinho are out.
Normally Ajax would be a 1.20 – 1.25 odds favorite today, but the truth is Excelsior is playing really well and proved their form even against top teams like Feyenoord. However, Ajax is better than Feyenoord and the hosts are playing their best football of the season themselves. It will be a great atmosphere at Amsterdam ArenA after the lastest 2 road wins by Ajax and I expect the home players to be focused and deliver the win.
Excelsior never won in Amsterdam and the last 4 meetings ended with Ajax wins by handicap. My tip will be Ajax to win and cover the 1 goal asian handicap. The odds are truly excellent. Correct score prediction: Ajax Amsterdam – Excelsior 2-0.
Pick: Ajax (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.66 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.28
Event date: 8 March
