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Albert Ramos versus Lleyton Hewitt, 29 April, in the first round of the ATP Munich 250 tennis tournament.
Spaniard Ramos did not have the best year on the ATP circuit so far, dropping from number 83 to number 117 in the rankings. He wasn’t all that bad, had some decent results like quarterfinals at Buenos Aires or 2 challenger semifinals, but overall not impressive form. Also he had a lot of points to defend and did not rise to the challenge. On european clay he was ok in last two weeks, passing qualifiers at Monte Carlo and losing in 3 sets to Dimitrov in 2nd round; than reaching Barcelona 2nd round (def. Davydenko) and losing 6-7 4-6 to Nadal. Ramos played qualifiers here in Munich and had some problems losing sets to Marti and Gombos but he will probably be more focused today.
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Hewitt (42 ATP) started the season in brilliant form, winning the Brisbane title over Roger Federer, but did not manage to keep up the same form in the following months. He did not play in the last three weeks and his only matches on clay were at Houston (his last tournamnet, def. Polansky, lost to Querrey). It is safe to say he comes in this tournament a little bit unprepared, especially taking into account that clay has always been by far his worst surface. Last year Lleyton played only 4 matches on clay and lost three of them against Alund, Andujar and Simon; he only won in Davis cup vs. Kubot but on indoor clay.
Ramos has played only on clay since February so he has rhythm on the surface. Hewitt played just one tournament on clay, at Houston, and that is a different surface than the clay in Europe. Also Ramos is well known to be much more comfortable on clay than Hewitt, the spaniard is a tipical clay courter. This is the first match between Ramos and Hewitt on any level.
Even if Ramos dropped 34 places in the rankings so far this season, he played decent tennis in his last tournaments. Beating Nieminen, Berlocq or Davydenko in the last two weeks has to account for something. The spaniard played no less than 9 matches on clay (7 won, 2 lost) since Hewitt last took the court so for sure he is in much better rhythm coming into this match. It`s understandable why his odds are dropping. I reckon it will be very hard for Lleyton to be competitive in his first match after 3 weeks, in Europe, on a surface which does not suit him, against a natural clay-courter in decent form … especially at his age when he can’t run around the tennis court like he used to. Surface and rhythm are the keys to this match so I will tip Ramos to win this Munich opener. Anything over 1.55 I think represents good odds and the tip can be played even at 1.50 … but 1.60 from Winner is surely value and I’ll invest high stakes on this bet. Correct score prediction: Ramos – Hewitt 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Albert Ramos
Odds: 1.60 @ Winner
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.40
Event date: 29 April
