Alcoron – Getafe

Alcoron and Getafe square off in a late Copa Del Rey match on Thursday and there seems to be good betting potential on this clash. The tie is played over one leg.

Alcoron did not start the season very well, claiming just 2 points and scoring a single goal in the first three rounds. Projected to finish midtable, the hosts are currently in the relegation zone and need to start picking up points.

Getafe did not start the season much better, recording three draws in the first three rounds with a goal difference of 2-2. The visitors are one of the strongest sides in the division this year, as they retained a lot of quality players from their La Liga team of last season (Guaita, Lacen, Suarez, Scepovic, etc.), while also making a high number of really good transfers (Anton, Molinero, Diaz, Dani Pacheco and so on). The team is definitely good enough to achieve promotion, but so far Getafe was not particularly impressive.

Team news: Both sides could to rotate a bit, as both Getafe and Alcoron need to focus on improving their league results. Still, each side will probably field a pretty strong lineup.

Getafe and Alcoron are both playing a brand of organized and disciplined football. The pragmatic approach means they play ugly and boring football, which makes them prone to draws. This is obvious so far this season – from the 6 matches they played combined, 5 of them were draws!

This seems to be a very evenly matched clash on paper and that increases the chances of a tied game even further. At odds 3.00 I am gladly taking the draw here, as it`s hard to argue that it is not the most probable result. The odds suggest a ~33% probability of a draw and I think we can all agree that stats and common sense suggest that the chances for such a result are actually higher.

I can`t say I have watched these two sides this season (though I did see Getafe once), but I believe this is a case when stats are important and allow us to catch a pretty decent value bet. Low / medium stakes, but it definitely makes sense to try the draw here. The under also makes sense, but the odds on that bet are rubbish. Prediction: Alcoron – Getafe 1-1 (1-2 extra time).

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.05 @ Betsafe
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 8.20
Event date: 8 September