Betdistrict.com
Alexander Zverev will attempt to win his second Masters title of the year, while Federer will be going for his third, as the two players will square off in the Rogers Cup final at Montreal.
Zverev had a breakout season so far and he has been even better after Wimbledon, winning 9 matches on the American hard courts coming into this final – and losing just two sets along the way. Zverev has been his usual consistent self this week. He had some big problems in his first against Gasquet, but after that he went on to win in straight sets against Kyrgios, Anderson and Shapovalov. The semifinal against Shapovalov (6-4 7-5) was very close, but Zverev pushed at the right times and showed great efficiency (one of his defining qualities) to maintain control.
With a 35-2 record this year and a run of 16 consecutive wins, little more can be said about Federer’s already historic season. The Swiss Maestro is back at his best and continued his dominance this week at Montreal, reaching the final with ease despite (apparently) not pushing himself too much. Roger had a bad day in his second match of the week against Federer, when he lost a set, but eventually won that without too many problems. His other wins came against Polansky, Bautista Agut and Haase, all in straight sets.
Bet on Zverev vs. Federer and claim your 100% (100 Eur) free bet at Ohmbet now!Federer leads the H2H 2-1, but you can argue the H2H is tied at 2-2 if you count Zverev’s win in the Hopman Cup at the start of this year as an official result (it was also the only meeting on hard courts between the two). Federer won the last meeting a couple of months ago in the Halle final, schooling Zverev for a 6-1 6-3 victory.
Zverev’s form has been obviously great both long term and short term, but a fair question can be raised if he is playing well enough to beat a guy like Federer.
For all of Zverev’s recent success, he had plenty of moments when he seemed to be under pressure, including this week, but he got on top by showing incredible efficiency and winning the big points with amazing regularity.
A perfect example of this came yesterday in his semifinal against Shapovalov, when Zverev went 3/3 on break points, while Shapovalov was only 1/7. This was also the case in the quarterfinals against Anderson, when Zverev dodged serious bullets, saving break points at crucial moments, while breaking in every game he had the chance. In fact, these kind of statistics happened in every game Zverev played this week.
Zverev converted 10 of his last 13 break points, and broke in 10 of the last 11 games in which he had a chance – all this while saving tons of break points in key moments.
It will be extremely difficult for Zverev to maintain these stats and the same level of efficiency against Federer, who is as experienced and savvy at this level as one can be. Roger himself improved his efficiency this year, so it`s hard to expect Zverev going something like 100% on break points while saving 6 of 7 break points on his serve again.
Another factor that could work against Zverev is the fact that this will be his 10th match in 12 days! The German is obviously young and proved to be a fit competitor, also playing just two three setters in these two weeks. However, after so much tennis there is a possibility of physical and / or mental fatigue against a fresh Federer.
Federer didn’t necessarily play his best tennis this week, but he didn`t need to, and never looked in danger of losing. Chances are Federer will raise his level in the final, as he usually does. This actually happened a couple of months ago at Halle, when Federer brought is “A game” in the last act and gave an in form Zverev a 6-1 6-3 spanking.
Look for the Swiss Maestro to show his experience and deny Zverev the efficiency which helped the German so much recently. I don`t expect a blowout, but Fed should be able to win this by 3-5 games difference, as he was always able to outsmart and outplay in form youngsters like Alex Zverev in the important matches.
From all possible bets on Federer, I will choose the game handi here. My tip is Federer to cover the 3 game asian handicap (safer than the -3.5, but I guess that works as well with lower stakes). Prediction: Alexander Zverev – Roger Federer 3-6 6-7.
Pick: Federer -3 games
Odds: 1.73 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.30
Event date: 13 August
