Alfreton – Tamworth

Third placed Alfreton will hope to consolidate their playoff spot in the standings with a home win over 21st placed Tamworth.

The hosts are having a great season so far and seem to be in a good position to end up in the playoffs for promotion. However, Alfreton needs to be very careful, as they are just 5 points clear of the first non-playoff spot and they have a couple of extra games played compared to all their promotion rivals. I will continue with some tricky statistics here: for example, they have one more game played compared to the 4th spot, three more games than the 5th spot and FIVE more games than the 6th spot. One could say that Alfreton is not really a favorite to catch the playoffs right now, despite being on the third place. Their objective suffered a blow with two losses in the last two rounds (both on the road) so this really is a must win game for the hosts.

The most interesting fact about Alfreton is the free-flowing type of football they play. The goalscoring statistics are off the charts, with a 46-48 goal difference in 29 rounds – making for an average of 3.25 goals scored in their games. They can create chances but they also have a horrible defense: how often do you see the 3rd place team having a negative goal difference and the 3rd worst defence in the league? Alfreton recorded 6 over 2,5 goals games in the last 8 they played.

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Tamworth are fighting for their lives in the Conference Premier right now. They are 2 points behind the first non-relegating spot but they have a couple of games in hand compared with the teams above them in the standings. Tamworth last league game saw them win 2-0 against Halifax Town and they seem to be in solid form recently, avoiding losing in the last three games they played (all competitions). Like Alfreton, Tamworth has a poor defense (41 goals conceded) but their main problem is that they have scored just 23 times in 24 games so far – bad offensive statistics.

Alfreton is the better team here quality-wise and they are excellent at home (11-1-2), but I don`t think they`ll have an easy game considering the way they played recently and the toughness of this league. I like the over 2.5 goals bet much more than the home win. We are talking about two of the worst defensive setups in the league clashing here, with Alfreton also having a top offense. The only issue is that Tamworth has problems creating chances, but they should be able to get something on counters considering the error-prone back line they will meet. The hosts will come out all guns blazing searching for a mandatory win, so they will leave spaces, and this should end up with at least three goals, if not more. My pick here would be Alfreton Town – Tamworth 2-1 or 2-2. Very solid odds by Ladbrokes for a bet with excellent chances to be a winner.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.70 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.6
Event date: 16 January

Editor Facts

• Rostick won 7 of his last 8 Conference tips