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After the big win vs. South Korea, now Algeria has a great chance for qualification and they will get it if they get it if they do not lose against Russia. But Russia needs to win to go trough, so it will be a hell of a battle. South Korea can come back and qualify themselves as long as Algeria does not win, but they need to beat Belgium by 3 goals, which is almost impossible, so it will probably go down between Russia and Algeria.
Alegeria is one of the nicest surprises in the World Cup. They played very well against Belgium, losing due to a late goal after they led 1-0 and proved the performance was not a fluke: they destroyed South Korea 4-2 in the following game and the score could have been bigger. The Algerians were a defensive team in the last years but under the current manager they started playing very nice attacking football and the results are clear; they also have some good players playing at strong European Clubs. Algeria has no squad problems and can send the best 11 on the pitch.
Algeria lineup: Mbolhi – Bougherra, Mesbah, Halliche, Mandi, Bentaleb – Feghouli, Medjani, Brahimi – Slimani, Djabou.
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I thought Russia would do more in this World Cup but the 1-1 draw against South Korea (a deserved score) put a dent in their chances. They defended well vs. Belgium but like Algeria they lost due to a late goal and now must get a win if they are to qualify. Considering their offensive performance so far it will be very hard, and it seems Capello will insist to keep Kerzhakov on the bench again. Russia has no absentees aside from Kozlov who is questionable – but probably will play.
Russia lineup: Akinfeev – Kombarov, Berezutskiy, Ignashevich, Glushakov – Kokorin, Shatov, Samedov, Fayzulin, Kozlov – Kanunnikov
If you asked me before the tournament who would I pick in a deciding game between Algeria and Russia, I would have said without a doubt Russia; but now I’m not so sure. The Russians played sub-par so far and we can’t know if they will suddenly bring their best. Even if they do, it might not be enough, because Algeria is a very good side in great form. Algeria 1x looks like a good bet, but I have more trust in the under. The Africans are playing good, offensive football, but Russia is one of the best defensive teams in the World Cup. Russia will try to keep a clean sheet and hope they can get a goal over the 90 minutes. Algeria, who needs a draw, I’m sure will not be too upset about that approach. Also if Russia goes up 1-0, they are able to freeze that score. Deciding games are always played cautious and I expect nothing less this time. My tip will be under 2,5 goals, it also has better odds than the 1x. Prediction: Algeria – Russia 0-0 and Algeria should qualify.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.46
Event date: 26 June
