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Top class encounter between two top 20 players in the quarterfinals at ATP Valencia.
Almagro had a rather poor year by his standards until finally picking up some form in the late hard season. The spaniard played excellent tennis in his last two tournaments at Tokyo (semifinals) and Shanghai (quarters), beating players like Berdych or Nishikori. He lost both times to in-form Del Potro in straight sets, putting up a good fight in Tokyo (6-7 6-7), not so good in Shanghai (3-6 3-6). Nicolas seems to have carried his good form in his home tournament in Valencia, defeating Andujar and Przysiezny without losing the set. However, his opposition was poor and he did show signs of weakness against the pole, winning after a hard fought battle. Nicolas is still a little shaky, 2 good tournaments have not transformed him overnight and his reliability at the moment is a questionmark.
Fognini had an unbelievable season so far, the best of his career. He broke top 20 for the first time and posted a win-loss record of 40-25. Much of his success can be attributed to the clay court season, where he reached three finals in a row at Stuttgart, Hamburg and Umag, winning the first two. This year Fabio has wins over top guys like Berdych, Haas (twice), Wawrinka or today`s opponent Almagro, showing that he can mix it up with the best at any time. The late hard court season has been less impressive for Fabio, with a single quarterfinal to his name (at Beijing), but again he showed some massive performances at times. He was very close to beating Nadal at Beijing (lost in 3), he put up a decent fight against Djokovic and defeated Robredo and Hewitt. Fognini looked great so far at Valencia, dispatching Klizan (3 sets, but easy win) and blowing out Granollers.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
The H2H is 3-2 for Nico, but the last two meetings were won by Fognini, including the one this year, at Hamburg (6-4 7-6). Almagro leads 1-0 on hard courts and he has an important advantage on this surface. The spaniard loves indoor hard, while Fognini, despite being able on all surfaces, is definitely more of a claycourt player.
Almagro is a rightful favorite for this one considering the surface and the short term form, but the bookies and punters are going way too far with these odds. Fognini is in much better long-term form and has proved that he can play top tennis on hard courts. At Valencia, the italian looked to be in great shape. Nico maybe has 55% chances for a win today but I will gladly take Fognini at these insane odds of about 3.00. If Fabio keeps up his normal level of play and comes up with the same stuff he did all year, he will have opportunities to exploit Almagro`s weaknesses and lack of consistency. Nico`s serve will be an asset but Fognini is a great returner, and that should help him put some pressure on the spaniard. It should be a great fight between two fine players. Both still have chances to reach the London ATP Wourld Tour Finals on paper, but they must win this tournament to mantain hope, so another motive for a tight and highly entertaining clash.
My pick is Fognini to take this in three sets after a titanic battle. This has value bet written all over it and it is definitely worth a decent medium-high stake investment. Handicap on Fabio and over 22 games are also decent choices, but I`m sticking with the single win in order to get the best value. Fabio Fognini – Nicolas Almagro 6-4 3-6 7-6.
Pick: Fognini
Odds: 3.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 12.36
Event date: 25 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick lost his last 6 tennis tips
