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Almeria hosts Villarreal in the 27th round of the Spanish La Liga.
Almeria is coming after a crucial match with Elche in which they were unable to get anything … losing 0-1 and dropping in the red zone on the 18th place. It was the 4th game without a win for Almeria and things do not look good for the home team. Unfortunately for them returning at home will not give too much confidence … Almeria is the worst home team in all of La Liga, winning just 1 game from 12 (4 draws, 6 losses). Ruben Navarro is the only definite absentee for Almeria, but Ximo Navarro could also miss out on the clash.
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Villarreal lost 1-3 to Sevilla in the Europa League midweek … a little bit surprising considering the fact that Marcelino’s side was in excellent form. Probably they are starting to feel some fatigue after playing a ton of tough matches recently with Real, Barcelona and now Sevilla. With this in mind Marcelino will rotate the squad a little bit today. As far as team news go, Bruno and Marin are definitely unavailable … Ruiz and Musacchio are doubtful and will probably not play either.
This match should not see too many goals. Almeria is one of the worst sides in La Liga as far as scoring is concerned and at home they score 0.66 goals per game… they will park the bus and hope for a draw. I don’t think they will score vs. a Villarreal team that is known for excellent defense, and Villarreal will also be extra focused after allowing 3 from Sevilla midweek. The visitors might struggle themselves to score with European hangover, some rotation in the team and Almeria’s defensive setup. The odds on the under over market are a little bit off in my opinion … my tip is under 2,5 goals. I also think Villarreal will eventually find a way to get over Almeria, but I would not bet on that. Correct score prediction: Almeria – Villarreal 0-1.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 15 March
