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Anadolu Efes and Olympiakos will square off again after fighting some great battles in the last few years. However, there`s not too much drama surrounding this second to last game in the Top 16, as the hosts are already knocked out from the competition, while Olympiakos advanced to the next round after Thursday`s results. Nevertheless, the match holds some great betting value, as you might agree after reading the preview.
Efes (2 wins, 10 losses, 8th in the standings) wasn`t able to repeat last years` success, when they reached the quarterfinals and went on to lose a superb nailbiting series against today`s opponents Olympiakos. However, reaching the top 16 is a good performance for the turkish side as they lost a few players last year, most notable Jordan Farmar, now with the LA Lakers. Despite the 2-10 statline, Efes did not play so bad in this group stage, especially at home where they lost a couple of very close matches to giants like Panathinaikos of Barcelona. Nevertheless last time out it was a nightmare for Efes, losing by 26 points in Istanbul to Laboral Kutxa, so they will surely be keen to improve that performance today.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Normally the two time reigning Euroleague champions Olympiakos (6 wins, 6 losses, 4th place in the standings) would have needed a win in Turkey in order to book their place in the quarterfinals, but yesterday`s results were in the greeks’ favor and Oly has now qualified with two games in hand. The visitors, of course, are a great team and are always favorites to reach the latter stages of the Euroleague, but they weren`t so impressive in this Top 16 when playing on the road – yes, they beat Laboral, but lost by 30 points to Armani Milano and by 12 points to Barcelona – not to mention the defeats to Fenerbahce and arch rivals Panathinaikos. It`s safe to say that Oly has decreased its level a bit compared to the last two seasons.
The matchup here is pretty balanced, no team can say it holds the weapons to outplay the other side tactically. Oly won 78-60 against Anadolu in Greece, but home court advantage is always a massive factor in the Euroleague. Olympiakos is a better team than Efes, but they could have serious problems on the road against a good side that has no pressure. Look for the hosts to play with passion after the blowout against Laboral, especially since they would love a small dose of revenge after last years’ heartbreaking quarterfinal loss.
There is also a more ‘pragmatic’ reason to take the turkish side here – specifically because they are getting great odds with some great value, and the reason is simple: everybody jumped on Olympiakos in the last few days thinking that the greeks need a win in order to qualify, but now suddenly that is not the case anymore, so the price dropped artificially. Even more, this game is not even important in the race for the 3rd place, as Oly still has to beat Panathinaikos in the last game regardless of the result here, so circumstances have changed drastically, thus providing excellent value on this bet. One could also expect the visitors to be a little bit more relaxed in these conditions, while Efes is fuming with ambition and thoughts of revenge. All in all I believe Olympiakos will edge this, but it should be a tight clash and my tip is Efes to cover the 7,5 point handicap. A 7-8 unit bet in my opinion, but given the circumstances I will raise the stakes a little bit. Prediction: Anadolu Efes – Olympiakos 73 – 75.
Pick: Anadolu Efes (+7,5)
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.28
Event date: 4 April
