Anderlecht – Qabala

Anderlecht and Qabala will open up their Europa League group stage campaign with a clash at Constant Vanden Stock. The two sides are part of Group C, which also features Mainz and Saint Etienne.

Anderlecht isn`t quite moving mountains this season, even if they lost just once in the 10 games played so far. It was a 0-2 defeat at home against Rostov, which knocked them out of the Champions League. But the hosts struggled in many games, recorded a lot of draws in accessible matches in Belgium and are on the back of a difficult 3-2 home win against Charleroi, a match in which they were behind until the 60th minute. On the other side, Anderlecht just made the biggest signing in its history, spending close to 10 million on Stanciu from Steaua Bucharest. More importantly, they showed their best football of the season in the Europa League playoffs, where they destroyed Slavia Pragua 6-0 aggregate.

Qabala has done very well to qualify for this stage, knocking out Maribor and especially Lille in the process. The hosts are building on the good impression they left last year in Europa League (even if they suffered some heavy losses to teams like Dortmund or Krasnodar). Just like Anderlecht, Gabala has only 1 loss in the last 10 matches (to Maribor, 0-1) and is on the back of an 8-0 road win against Neftchi in the league.

For me, it makes no sense that Anderlecht is such a heavy favorite here. It probably has a lot to do with their 6-0 aggregate destruction of Slavia Prague, but that was just a tie and they did not look that menacing in the rest of their matches. Anderlecht is a good, but not great side and certainly can’t be trusted at 1.40 against a decent, hardworking team – which also proved itself in Europe against similar or bigger teams than Anderlecht (Lille and Maribor this year, Panathinaikos or PAOK last season).

Azeri football is getting better and better at club level and I believe Gabala has enough in the tank to ask question from an Anderlecht team that doesn`t have the strength it used to have, while also trying to find chemistry after a few important signings. Anderlecht has proved weak and vulnerable at the back this season, which in theory should favor the counterattacking gameplan expected from Gabala.

Home court advantage will be a big advantage for Anderlecht, I do believe that, but even so I don`t think the Belgian side will win this.

My tip is Qabala to cover the +1 asian handicap. Even if this is clearly a speculative pick in some regard, my low stakes have more to do with my bad form than with my confidence in this bet, because I do have more than 4 units worth of confidence. After my recent lack of success and a 2 day break, I decided to look for value and approach the bet with low stakes, as opposed to tipping matches that I think have the highest chance of success. We`ll see how it goes, in my eyes the bet makes sense. Prediction: Anderlecht – Qabala 1-1.

Pick: Qabala (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.39 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 5.56
Event date: 15 September