Rublev – Travaglia

Andrey Rublev will take on Stefano Travaglia in the first round at Wimbledon.

Rublev is one of the most talented youngsters on the tour and he had a breakout season this year, breaking the Top 100 despite being only 19 years old. Rublev proved himself very capable on grass in the last few weeks, reaching the quarterfinals at Halle (def. Ramos & Youzhny, lost a close one to Khachanov) and playing well here in qualifications at Wimbledon. Rublev got past Domingues (2-0), McGee (2-1) and Mathieu (3-1) to earn a place on the main draw.

Travaglia is a natural clay courter, playing pretty much all his tennis on the red dirt at challenger level. Incredibly, the 25 year old Italian has not played a single official match on grass prior to this season, but managed to win 3 out of 3 in the Wimbledon qualies to earn a surprising main draw spot. Nevertheless, it has to be said that he benefited from an extremely light draw, playing against Caruso (2-0), Halys (2-0) and Polansky (3-2, could have lost that one).

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The two players never met before on tour. Rublev is a much more versatile player and he is expected to be the aggressor against a baseliner used to the clay court game. Grass definitely works in Rublev’s favor here.

Travaglia’s winning run in qualifications was definitely a surprise and he deserves credit for that. He has some rhythm and that must be taken into account. But the fact remains that his draw was incredibly easy, his opponents being poor and out of form, and even so he almost lost against a guy like Polansky. The Italian is a complete rookie on grass and he can`t be expected to compete with the top guys on the main draw – especially as his form wasn`t special before Wimbledon, even on his beloved clay, so it`s not like he`s in some king of “zone”.

Rublev is in good form, he is having a very good season and played good tennis on grass this season. It`s clear he`s a better player than Travaglia, and the surface favors him big time.

Normally this should be a straight sets win for Rublev, he should be able to break down Travaglia’s game rather easily. His youth seems to be the biggest danger here and Travaglia might capitalize on that to win a set, but it`s unlikely he can do more.

Odds for Rublev to win 3-0 or 3-1 are satisfying for me, so my tip here will be Rublev to cover the 1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Andrey Rublev – Stefano Travaglia 6-4 7-6 6-3.

Pick: Rublev -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.50 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4
Event date: 4 July