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Surely one of the most anticipated clashes in the Shanghai 3rd round will be the one between Andy Murray and David Ferrer.
Andy Murray had a good Asian campaign so far, winning Shenzen and reaching the semis at Beijing last week (lost to Djokovic), but he`s still looking unable to reach his best level of play after struggling all year with his rhythm. Andy is generally challenged by any decent opponent and this was also seen in the Asian swing (lost sets to Monaco, Robredo, Janowicz, was easily beaten by Djokovic). Here at Shanghai Murray has played the same tennis, not much better, not worse: straight sets wins over Gabashvili and Janowicz, good level by the Brit, but still not top class.
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Ferrer struggled with his form as well this year, not really finding that consistency to allow him to stay in the Top 4. He had a great campaign at Cincinnati where he lost to Federer in 3 sets in the final but exited the US Open in the 3rd round and was atrocious in the Asian season so far, losing to Troicki and Granollers without winning a single match. However, David put on a much better performance in his sole match here at Shanghai, defeating an in-form Klizan in 3 very tough sets.
The H2H is 7-5 for Murray, however the Brit clearly has the upper hand on hard courts where he leads 6-1. The last meeting, in 2013, was won by Andy in a deciding set tiebreak at Miami.
Even though Andy Murray is still not playing his best tennis, Ferrer is even farther from his top level and can`t really be trusted to put pressure on the top guys right now. Looking at the 6-1 H2H on hard courts, it`s pretty obvious that Murray should own this and I expect him to defeat the Spaniard. I don`t necessarily see a blowout, we could even see 3 sets (though it`s very unlikely), but a 4 game handicap is clearly within Andy`s reach. All in all, my tip is Murray to win with a 4 game handicap – a handicap which he covered or pushed in 5 of his 6 hard court wins over Ferrer. He always gets at least one big set over the Spaniard and with Ferrer`s form, that will likely happen again here in Shanghai. Odds are dropping big time on the Brit. Prediction: Andy Murray – David Ferrer 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Murray (-4 game handicap)
Odds: 1.75 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 9 October
