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Andy Murray and David Ferrer will square off at Roland Garros with a place in the semifinals on the line.
Murray lost to sets last round against an inspired Jeremy Chardy, but that doesn`t change the fact that Andy is looking pretty sharp right now – and for the whole clay court season for that matter. Murray entered Paris on the back of two clay court wins at Munich and Madrid (def. Nadal in final) and was dominant at Roland Garros until Chardy threw everything at him in the 4th round. The Brit is finally showing why in his early years, when he was a non factor on the red dirt, he was insisting that “clay is my favorite surface”.
Ferrer is on the back of a blowout win over Marin Cilic but, while David played excellent, there was also the fact that Cilic was horrible for most of the match, making unforced error after unforced error. Ferrer blew out Gimeno Traver, Lacko and Cilic in this tournament, but was pushed to 5 sets by Bolelli in the 3rd round. Ferrer was trailing 1-2 in sets but came back to win the last two 6-0 6-1.
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The Head 2 Head reads a 9-6 advantage for Murray, but the Scot has not won a single match against Ferrer on clay (0-4). However, all meetings on the red happened before 2012, when Murray was miles away from his current level on this surface – thus making the clay Head 2 Head record irrelevant.
I don`t expect this to be particularly easy for Murray, as Ferrer is playing some of his best tennis right now. However, Andy is the better player, he had a better clay court season than Ferrer (as strange as that might sound) and was very solid in the past 10 days. The odds are a bit off as far as I`m concerned due to the fact that Murray struggled against Chardy, while Ferrer blew out Cilic. But sheer stats do not show the real circumstances – Chardy played fantastic, Cilic was a shadow.
Murray should find a way to the semifinals here and the game handicap is low enough to be covered even if it goes to 5 sets, considering that we shouldn`t see many tiebreaks and the sets will probably be generally one sided. My tip is Murray to win with a 3 game handicap. Prediction: Andy Murray – David Ferrer 3-6 6-3 7-5 6-3.
Bet365.com provides the best odds on the outright winner market at Roland Garros.
Pick: Murray -3 game hc.
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.09
Event date: 3 June
