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One of the highlight matches of the Cincinnati third round will see local favorite John Isner take on current world number 9 Andy Murray. There just might be a fair share of betting value in this H2H.
Murray has struggled to find his best level of tennis this year after having back surgery late in 2013. He did not miss too much time from the court, but a surgery always takes a lot out of you, especially a back surgery for tennis players. Andy took time to get back into rhythm, wasn`t impressive in the first few months of 2014, but he did play some good matches and seems to be improving lately – most notably reaching the Roland Garros semifinals. The last two tournaments Murray played were Wimbledon and Toronto last week, he exited in the quarters at both of them, losing to Dimitrov and Tsonga – good tennis from Andy, but still not top class. The fact that he defeated only 2 top 20 players this season (Anderson and an out of form Tsonga) pretty much sums up the fact that he`s not at the level to compete for Slams right now, maybe not even Masters tournaments. Overall we can expect him to improve though, maybe starting with this week. In his first match at Cincinatti he defeated Sousa 6-3 6-3.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Isner had some ups and downs himself this season but he played his best tennis of the year just three weeks ago, winning Atlanta in impressive fashion against some hot, in form players. He did suffer two big letdowns in his next tournaments against S. Johnson (Washington) and Dodig (Toronto), exiting both tournaments in his first match, so it seems John is still far from playing consistent. However he is now fresh and surely motivated after 2 early exits, he also has to defend a lot of points (he reached the final here last year) and we could see his “A Game” in the previous two matches here at Cincy – straight sets Isner wins against Kevin Anderson and Marinko Matosevic. These were two very dangerous players but Isner only played one tiebreak and allowed zero breaks of serve.
Andy Murray leads the H2H 2-0 (6-1 in sets), both matches were played on hard but the last one was in 2011. I`d say Murray does have a slight matchup advantage over Isner with his excellent return, but he needs to play his best tennis in order to capitalize on that.
I think Murray is the favorite in this match but only slightly – he`s the better player overall, he played good tennis last week at Toronto and Isner is still a little bit inconsistent, but these odds for Andy are crazy and it`s no wonder they are going up. Murray is good but he`s not the same player he was 2 years ago and Isner with his serve is always extremely dangerous, especially in the current circumstances: rested, in form, fit, playing in the US, at a tournament he loves and where he has a ton of points to defend. Big John has proved time and time again that he can beat the top guys and make deep runs in Masters tournaments, so it really would not be a surprise for him to take this one, especially seeing that he played great tennis in the first two rounds. Expect the American to be impecable on serve and if Murray blinks he will lose just like he did against Tsonga last week. I won`t bother with handicaps here, I`m going with the best odds and the best value – my tip is Isner to win. Prediction: Andy Murray – John Isner 4-6 6-3 6-7.
Pick: Isner
Odds: 3.21 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 15.47
Event date: 14 August
