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After Tomas Berdych defeated David Ferrer and Stan Wawrinka shocked Novak Djokovic, today the Australian Open will see the last two quarterfinals (Nadal – Dimitrov and Murray – Federer). Of course the matchup between Andy and Roger will be highlight of the day, and I reckon it has great potential for a winning betting prediction.
This time last year Andy Murray was playing the best tennis of his career, losing a thriller against Djokovic in the Australian Open final after winnint the Olympics and the Us Open. He went on to win Wimbledon 2013, but an injury saw a dipping in form and he eventually had to forfeit the last 3 months of the season in order to get a back surgery. While he was out of the tour for only 3 months, a surgery is never something easy to recover from. Murray played poorly in his first tournament back from injury, losing to F. Mayer in the second round at Doha. He looked to be a lot more sharp in the Australian Open winning his first three rounds without losing a set, but he never faced a real challenge (Soeda, Millot, Lopez, Robert) and he even managed to lose a set in the 4th round to the journeyman Stephane Robert. Overall, good tennis from Andy, but he did show obvious weaknesses at certain points in his matches and he has not been tested at all so far.
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Federer looks to be back in form, and is playing some of his best tennis in years here at the Australian Open. After a horrible 2013 by his standards, with poor movement on the court and a bucket of unforced errors in almost every match, he managed to regain some rhythm late in the season, challenging and even defeating top guys like Nadal, Djokovic and Del Potro. However, the start of 2014 was disappointing for the swiss, with the unforced errors back in his game for a loss to Hewitt in the Brisbane final. Much was not expected from Roger coming in Melbourne, also considering his horror draw, but Federer played brilliant so far, failing to lose a set. His performance in the 4th round against Tsonga was great. His serve is working well, he`s moving like 2 years ago and the number of unforced errors has dipped considerably. His aggressiveness is also at an all time high. Al in all great tennis for Federer, but you still can`t jump with predictions on the swiss with the eyes closed considering his good form has been very short-term, and the surface here at the AO with the slower hard courts is not his absolute best.
The H2H is 11-9 for Murray, including a 5 set semifinal win last year here at the Australian Open. You can`t say that this H2H showcases a clear matchup disadvantage for Roger, but it`s true that Andy is not his favorite opponent because of his excellent defensive skills and fast movement on the court. However, Murray`s movement is not top-notch at the moment following his back surgery and short inactivity. Last year, a much better Murray had big problems to defeat a worse Federer, so this time around it could go the other way.
I will pick Federer to win here without a shadow of the doubt. While I am not naive to see him winning just because he played solid tennis so far at the Australian Open, there are a lot of factors going his way. Most importantly, Murray`s back surgery will make the difference. This kind of operation makes a massive difference when you are talking about coming back at the highest level, you need time, there`s no other way around it. His play in the start of the season proved it and I don`t expect Murray to be the old self earlier than the grass court season. Federer always defeated Murray when he played aggressive tennis and so far in this tournament he was in attack-mode. With him playing offense, serving very well and with Murray a little limited in movement, this is the perfect matchup recipe for a Federer win. Murray is of course younger, he was the more in form player prior to the injury and the surface slightly favors him, but I`ll take the healthier, currently more in-form and the better player overall here. My pick is Federer to win this quarterfinals clash in 4 sets, something like 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4, but I wouldn`t be surprised if Roger takes it in three with Murray proving he needs more recovering before he can mix it up with the best. Maximum stakes (10 units) on an excellent 1.91 price by Ladbrokes. For further insight on the Australian Open you can check out our Saturday article on Who will win in Melbourne.
Pick: Roger Federer
Odds: 1.91 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.1
Event date: 22 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 2 for 4 in tips on the Australian Open
