Murray – Wawrinka

Andy Murray will attempt to knock out Stan Wawrinka for a second year in a row in the Roland Garros semifinals, but the Swiss is entering the match in full “Stanimal” mode.

Andy Murray had an extremely disappointing season up to Roland Garros, and reaching the semifinals was quite surprising considering that he failed to win consecutive matches in any of the 3 Masters tournaments before Paris. Nevertheless, Murray finally found his rhythm to defeat Kuznetsov, Klizan, Del Potro, Khachanov and Nishikori here at RG17, losing 2 sets along the way (to Klizan and Nishikori).

Wawrinka is riding a 9 match winning streak after winning Geneva prior to Roland Garros, and has not lost a set so far in this tournament. Wawrinka played very well in the first 4 rounds, but in the quarters he took his game to the next level – destroying a red hot Marin Cilic 6-3 6-3 6-1. Cilic was in fantastic form entering that match, but he could not overcome an unleashed Wawrinka, who also had a matchup advantage against him.

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Murray leads the H2H 10-7, but Wawrinka leads 3-1 on clay. That means there`s no matchup advantage for Andy against Stan. Actually, considering that Murray is the more accomplished player, you would expect the H2H to be a bit more one sided in his favor, so Wawrinka is definitely not bothered playing against the Brit. And more importantly, Stan seems to have the advantage on clay, the H2H confirming that.

The two players met at the same stage of Roland Garros last year and Murray got his only clay court win over Wawrinka in 4 sets – but Andy was playing better back then, while Stan was not quite in “Stanimal” mode.

After a few rounds it seemed very possible that this could be one of those tournaments for Wawrinka, and his win against Cilic confirmed that he`s in that Grand Slam winning form which he gets once a year. Playing like this, he`s a favorite against anybody, and history confirms it – usually he goes on to win the trophy when he finds his “A game” in the second week of Grand Slams.

Murray has been very good so far in this tournament, even great at times, but he`s still not playing his best tennis. 5 months of poor results surely left a mark, and I doubt this version of Murray can defeat Wawrinka when the Swiss is in his top form – especially with the surface also favoring Stan.

My tip is Wawrinka to win, I think a bet on him makes a lot of sense. He`s playing better tennis, the clay works in his favor and Murray doesn`t have a matchup advantage to help him. I can see Stan reaching the final, where he would have a real chance against Nadal if he keeps playing like this. Prediction: Andy Murray – Stan Wawrinka 4-6 6-7 6-4 3-6.

Pick: Wawrinka
Odds: 1.77 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.16
Event date: 9 June