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Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych will square off on Friday in a very interesting Miami semifinal and an even more interesting one betting – wise. The odds on Murray are going down and I can see them going down even more until match time.
Murray is continuing to play some of the best tennis on the tour and he is clearly a Top 3 player this year, with only Djokovic and Federer showing a better level. Andy is on the back of a semifinal at Indian Wells (lost to Djokovic) and he has been solid this week as well, getting past Young, Giraldo, Anderson and Thiem. One might say that he did not meet top opponents and that he lost a set in each of his last two matches – that is true, but we know a guy like Andy is saving his best for the latter stages of the tournaments.
Berdych has been a really strange case this year. Tomas played excellent tennis all year round, blowing opponents off the court, but each time he met a top player, he was nowhere to be found. Strangely (as Berdych always challenged the best of the best), Tomas seems unable to mix it up with guys from the Top 10 right now. He has just two Top 20 wins this season (to Simon and an out of shape Nadal). He lost to Murray, Ferrer, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Federer, usually pretty easy – last week in the Indian Wells quarters it was a 4-6 0-6 defeat to Fedex. Here in Miami, Tomas defeated Chung, Tomic, Monfils and Monaco – losing a set to Tomic and benefiting from a Monfils retirement.
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Tomas Berdych leads the Head 2 Head 6-5, but Andy Murray has a 5-3 advantage on hard courts and he won the last meeting this year at the Australian Open (6-7 6-0 6-3 7-5) – despite Berdych hiring the coach of Andy, Dani Vallverdu. The Head 2 Head does not have too much of a relevance when these two meet.
The bookies set such high odds for Murray because of his small blips against Anderson and Thiem, but Andy has been extremely consistent all season with his level of tennis and it is expected he will play better today. He was outstanding anyway this week and his wins were never in doubt, even when he lost a set. Berdych`s good form is irrelevant when you look at his record against top players this year, including Murray – this semifinal looks extremely similar to the one in Australian Open, there were the same circumstances back than and Murray won 6-7 6-0 6-3 7-5.
Look for Andy to fend off Berdych’s power shots from the baseline and beat him down with consistency and with his top class return of serve. Looking at the odds, I feel no need to go with handicaps or set betting (Berdych could snatch a set if he is serving lights out). My tip is an Andy Murray win and I`m confident in betting maximum stakes. Prediction: Andy Murray – Tomas Berdych 6-7 6-2 6-4.
Live streaming for Murray vs. Berdych available at Bet365 for all funded accounts.
Pick: Murray
Odds: 1.66 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.6
Event date: 3 April
