Kerber – Konta

Angelique Kerber and Johanna Konta square off in a surprising Australian Open semifinal, with the german player favored at odds of about 1.35 to win by the bookmakers.

After a scare in the first round against Misaki Doi, Kerber cruised trough the next 4 rounds, winning all of her matches in straight sets. Her QF win over the in form Viktoria Azarenka was particularly impressive, Kerber winning 6-3 7-5 against a player that was expected to reach the final in this tournament.

Johanna Konta has been the biggest surprise of this years’ Australian Open. The 47th ranked Brit shocked Venus Williams in the first round and followed up the upset with wins over Zheng, Allertova, Makarova (8-6 in the third, lost her only set) and Zhang. However, for all of Konta’s credits, it has to be said that she had a really easy draw. Her only tough match was against Makarova, as Venus Williams played poorly in the first round – the rest of her matches looked more like ITF events than advanced stages of a Grand Slam.

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The Head 2 Head is tied at 0-0, with the two players never meeting before on tour. It might be an advantage for Kerber because of her superior experience and defensive style, as Johanna will be the one that needs to solve the riddle and find answers – Kerber will do her usual stuff, covering the court and putting balls back in play.

While Konta played well, I was not impressed with her and she made plenty of (easy) mistakes so far in this tournament. Kerber on the other hand is playing at the top of her game, as well as anybody (aside from Serena) can play in the WTA. She also has experience on her side, which will surely count against the inexperienced Konta in such a massive clash.

I can see the Brit giving her everything and staying competitive in one set, but in the end I believe Kerber’s defensive style is perfect to contain Johanna. She should hold off the challenge and win in straight sets. The bottom line is that Konta is just not playing Grand Slam semifinal level tennis right now – she`s playing well, but not good enough and luck of the draw has a lot to do with her being here.

As such, My tip is Kerber to win 2:0, covering the 1,5 set handicap. I`m choosing this bet as opposed to a game handicap because of better odds and because 4 games seems a bit too high. Prediction: Angelique Kerber – Johanna Konta 7-5 6-2.

Pick: Kerber -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.10 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.70
Event date: 28 January