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Angelique Kerber will take on a resurgent Venus Williams in the Women’s Wimbledon semifinals, with the Australian Open champion priced at 1.40 to defeat the American legend.
Angelique Kerber is yet to lose a set this year at Wimbledon and she`s on the back of a very solid win against Simona Halep. It was a terrific match which seemed like a highlight reel at times, featuring plenty of brilliant shotmaking from the baseline. Halep actually played at a very, very high level, so Kerber`s well deserved 7-5 7-6 win was really impressive. Before the quarters, Kerber defeated Rosbon, Lepchenko, Witthoeft and Doi without breaking much sweat. Prior to Wimbledon, Kerber reached the quarterfinals at Birmingham.
Venus is a 5 time Wimbledon champion but nobody expected her to reach the semifinals at SW19, even though she is currently ranked number 8th in the World (mostly due to solid results at the end of 2015). It`s a remarkable achievement for the 36 year old legend, even though she did not play particularly lights out so far. Sure, Venus is playing at a high level, but she did show weaknesses and had really tough matches so far. The older Williams sister lost sets to Kasatkina and Sakkari, had really tough matches with Suarez Navarro and Vekic and finally had it a bit easier in the quarters against Shvedova, 7-6 6-2. Venus did not play on grass this year before Wimbledon.
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Kerber leads the Head 2 Head 3-2, with Venus winning the last meeting back in 2013, on hard courts. The Wimbledon grass should be an advantage for a specialist on the green and a 5 time Wimbledon champion like Venus, but Kerber actually won the only meeting on this surface – 7-6 7-6 at the 2012 Olympics. Today’s grass is also much slower, so I`m not sure Williams does have an advantage in this regard, especially if we look at Kerber’s level throughout the tournament.
Watching these players in the quarters on Tuesday, it is pretty obvious that Kerber is playing the better tennis and she`s also a better player than Venus at this stage in her career. Kerber has not lost a set this tournament and was brilliant against Halep, while Venus had a rather easier schedule so far and is not quite showing Grand Slam winning tennis.
There`s also the fact that Venus played some long, difficult matches this week and that might be a problem at her age, especially against a player like Kerber, who has the ability to force you to hit one extra shot, while also having the offensive weapons to keep moving you around – like she did with Halep in the quarters. It`s a possibility that Venus will struggle physically.
One thing Kerber needs to do is improve on her serve, as there were 13 breaks of serve in two sets against Halep. Kerber definitely needs to serve better against Williams because she won`t have as many chances on the return, but that should be easy to do – as Venus is a much weaker returner than Halep.
If Kerber goes on to play at the same level, she might well win this tournament and I`m happy to back her against Venus. I will play it safe and bet on the straight win – the odds might not be very high, but they are good enough for a singles bet and I also believe they have value. As far as I`m concerned, Kerber should be a 1.20 – 1.25 favorite here.
I thought about maximum stakes on this one, but I will invest a slightly lower amount, 9 units, as I am not comfortable betting 10 units against proven champions. All logic says Kerber will win this, but great champions like Venus can sometimes turn the tables on the big stage and defy logic. Still, Venus is 36 years old and it looks very unlikely for that to happen. My tip is Kerber to win. Prediction: Angelique Kerber – Venus Williams 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Kerber
Odds: 1.44 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 3.96
Event date: 7 July
