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Important affair in the Europa League, as APOEL Nicosia and Asteras Tripolis are pretty much playing their last card for qualification in a difficult Group K, which also features the likes of Sparta Prague and Schalke 04.
APOEL lost 3-0 to Schalke and 2-0 to Sparta, which is pretty surprising considering that the hosts are not a bad side at all. More so, they are in very good form – leading the league with 6 wins and 1 draw in 7 matches, knocking out Midtjylland (who is playing great) from the Champions League before losing to Astana. The home side is on the back of two massive win in Cyprus, 5-0 and 6-0, so they will be full of confidence coming into this clash.
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Asteras has 1 point in the group after a lucky home draw against Sparta Prague, a game in which they were dominated and could have conceded 1-2 more goals. The Greeks followed that result with a 4-0 loss at Schalke. Asteras is not in a good moment right now and does not seem able to balance European football with domestic football. They failed to win any of the last 4 games and actually got a single victory in the previous 8 matches in all competitions.
APOEL has no other choice but to win this game, so they will go for the three points, everything else would virtually mean elimination. Asteras can`t exactly sit back all match either, at one point they will need to open up a bit and try to go for it. A draw would pretty much send both teams out, as Schalke and Sparta Prague are already ahead and seem too strong to be caught if they build an advantage.
Looking at their excellent form (particularly the 6-0 over AEL in the weekend was huge, with Cavenaghi scoring a hattrick), slightly superior quality and at the fact that they have much more experience in Europe than Asteras, they should be able to win this.
I believe experience will be a key factor in a match that resembles one in the knockout stage. The home side also had one day of rest ahead of this game, so that might end up being an advantage. My tip is APOEL to win. Pretty good odds and I reckon a medium stake of about 6-7 units is the proper stake for this bet. I can see new boy Cavenaghi banging in a goal here the way he`s been playing recently. Prediction: APOEL Nicosia – Asteras Tripoli 2-1.
Pick: APOEL Nicosia
Odds: 1.96 @ 1xBet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 5.76
Event date: 22 October
