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APOEL Nicosia was very fortunate to escape with a 2-2 draw in Finland after being led 2-0, but will now feel they have what it takes to qualify at home. Meanwhile, HJK can take a lot of positives from the first match and surely they will not go down without a fight in Cyprus.
APOEL won the league in Cyprus last season despite being tied in points with AEL, but I have to say that Cypriot football does not really look so strong right now. We could clearly see that APOEL are no world beaters in the first leg, when they would have probably lost if HJK did not have to play the whole second half with 10 men (Kandji was sent off when HJK was leading 2-0). APOEL obviously dominated the game in the second half, as they needed goals and had an extra man, but overall they would not have deserved to win. It was the first official match of the season for the Cypriots.
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While APOEL is still in the pre season preparation period, HJK is in full swing in the league and is leading the league with authority. The visitors are hands down the best team in Finland and are also in great form, playing great football and having not lost in the last 21 games in all competitions! Indeed the level in Finland is not exactly top class and HJK is a weaker team than APOEL individually, but they are bursting with confidence right now and surely they have the quality to battle it out with teams from countries like Cyprus.
Team news: Kandji will obviously not play for HJK Helsinki after being sent off in the first game, but overall both sides will be happy to have most players fit and ready to go. No absentees that could make the difference are reported ahead of this match.
APOEL to win might be the most popular bet of the day, but I believe the hosts will have serious problems against this HJK side. APOEL is not playing competitive football right now, they looked rusty in the first leg and are probably not at 100% physically either (they did score to late goals, but with an extra man). The Cypriots are not a scary side by any means and HJK can capitalize on its excellent form and confidence to produce an upset here. The odds for APOEL to win are way too low and I think there are solid arguments for the visitors to pull off a great result. My tip is HJK to cover the +1 asian handicap, a bet that seems pretty safe if we think that APOEL would be more than happy with a 0-0 or 1-1 draw. Prediction: APOEL Nicosia – HJK 1-1.
Pick: HJK (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.08 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.64
Event date: 6 August
