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Maybe the two most consistent teams over the whole 2015 Rugby World Cup, Argentina and Australia, will square off in a highly anticipated clash to decide who will join the mighty New Zealand in the grand RWC 2015 final.
Argentina started with a spirited performance against the All Blacks, losing by 10 points in a match that was even closer than the score suggests. The Pumas didn`t look back since, winning all their matches in dominant fashion and displaying a brilliant brand of attacking Rugby. They demolished Ireland in the quarterfinals 43-20 – but it has to be said that the scoreline was way too harsh on the Shamrocks and the main reason for which Argentina won was that Ireland didn`t have 4 of its best players. That was not the real Irish team.
Australia seemed to be the most in form team in the competition after the pool stages, winning the group of death in style and many were tipping them to win it all – particularly as the Wallabies were also on the back of winning the Rugby Championship this year. However, Australia struggled surprisingly with Scotland in the quarterfinals, needing a controversial (to say the least) last minute penalty to win, despite being rated at 1.10 favorites ahead of the clash. It was a poor game from the Aussies, but one we are unlikely to see again – they were without arguably their two best players and fly half Foley had a horrible game.
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Team news & lineups:
Australia will miss Scott Sio, but Pocock and Folau are back in the lineup, a huge boost for the Wallabies. Argentina will get back Bosch, so both teams will be happy with the team news.
Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Juan Martin Hernandez, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 James Slipper.
The fact that Australia almost lost to Scotland does not mean anything coming into this match, especially as they were without Pocock and Folau, who totally change the face of the team with their presence. In fact, I reckon that the experience against the Scots will make the Wallabies even more focused ahead of Argentina. On the same note, while Argentina is no fluke, their win over Ireland is way over hyped, as Ireland was just not the same team without 4 absolute key players.
Australia won the last 11 Head 2 Head meetings against Argentina, including a 34-9 road win this year in the Rugby Championship, as Wallabies went on to win the tournament. Argentina has not beaten Australia since 1997.
The Pumas have the edge in the scrum, despite Australia improving in this department, but the Wallabies are better on the wings. They key to this game will be at the breakdown and Australia has a terrific matchup advantage here – with David Pocock, they are arguably the best in the world at the breakdown, while Argentina is struggling in this department, often giving away penalties. I reckon Australia will get plenty of those today and win the match because of it. Lineuots should also go Australia’s way. Argentina’s dreadful Head 2 Head record against Australia is not a fluke, the matchup does not favor them. Also look for Foley to have a great kicking day after his nightmare effort against Scotland, which somehow ended with him as the hero.
Australia is the better side and knows all to well how to play against the Pumas and nullify Argentina’s weapons, something which represents a huge, almost insurmountable advantage. After playing very well in the last 20 minutes of the last match, benefiting from Ireland’s injury problems, I expect Argentina to revert to their traditional style of tiring and collapsing physically in the last 20 minutes against top teams – just like they did against New Zealand in the pool stage. That will be the moment when Australia will consolidate a handicap win. My tip is Australia to win and cover the 5,5 handicap. Prediction: Argentina – Australia 19 – 28.
Pick: Australia -5,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 25 October
I think so too! Agree on all points.
The only small caveat i would add is:
-Pocock and Folau will not be 100% as they’ve just recovered from injury and were only eased into training 3 days ago. They might be at, say, 80% at a guess.
Despite this, i agree that Australia minus 5 points is good value at 1.91. It definitely exploits the bandwagon push towards Argentina.
Nice call yesterday Rostick, this time we are in a agreement my friend 🙂
Trevor
Here are my comments :
Argentina will ship points and I think the old heads of the Wallabies, coupled with Chieka at the helm, will see them put Los Pumas away and cover the cap. The winning margin could be much bigger than most people think, providing the Wallabies can avoid too many scrums, as they will shut down the Pumas and not make the same tired errors that the Irish seemed to make.
Nice preview mate. I’m on the handicap too. Think Australia can’t play as bad as they played against Scotland. Specially Foley, I don’t think/hope he can play again a terrible match (he missed convertions and give away 1 try to Scotland) and somehow he was the hero after the last-minute scored penalty. Tbh in that match Australia give away 2 tries and the first scored by Scotland looked so silly. Then I had the impression when they were attackin they would score. Their rolling maul is awesome. On the other hand, Argentina struggle during 60 minutes against an Ireland without their best players. And Argentina defense In my opinion is not the best, so they will have problems.
Yesterday I backed the boks , I was so happy at HT but at the end they lacked a bit of quality/luck to win the match.
Everyone agrees today, that makes me a little worried :))))
Over 42.5 points is not a better option here?
@Richie – That is true. I should have mentioned it myself. Still, it`s a huge boost. It`s strange – everybody seems to be on Argentina’s side, but the odds are dropping on AUS. The bettors and the general public seem to have split opinions here.
@Trevor – Thx mate.I think the first scrum will be interesting to see and will tell us a lot. Argentina should dominate, but Australia improved and they might surprise us. If they come out strong to hold their own in the scrum, I reckon the match is almost won.
@Papo595 – The Boks were well worth backing, you were so close at odds around 4.50. Indeed, Argentina struggled with Ireland much more than the score suggests. They had the first and the last 20 minutes that`s it. I think if just one of the 4 injured players was available for IRE and I`m talking about Sexton here, the match could have gone either way. Madigan blew IRE`s chances early in the 2nd half. And I`m saying this as a guy who went with 10 units on Argentina, calling it the bet of the tournament.
@Barret – I like the over too. Not as much as the handicap, but I can see 45-50 points here. After huge point totals in the pool stage, the bookies started offering very low lines in the KO round. We had 60% unders in the groups, but in the quarters and semis there have been 4 overs in 5 games (only under was yesterday).
Appreciate the professional opinions guys!
Hi, Rostick. Great game prediction. But what can we (the Romanians) do to bet o pinnacle?..now it’s banned…
Thx mate. Well, you can always try with a VPN. But I do not recommend it, It`s not allowed by our government anymore, you don`t want to get in trouble. My advice would be to use betfair. Once you get the hang of it, it`s even better than Pinny, if you don`t mind betting singles. Same top odds and it`s temporarily licensed in Romania, at least until the end of the year.
https://www.betdistrict.com/betting-guides/betting-exchange
https://www.betdistrict.com/bookmakers/betfair-review
Another option for you guys to use is Matchbook.
They only charge 1% of either your stake or profit, so a better option than Betfair on costs I think.
Good luck to you all
Trevor
https://www.facebook.com/rugbyworldcup2015freedailybettingtips
To xanderxxx93’s problem, Matchbook is not allowed in Romania.
But even if it was, I think the problem with Matchbook is that they don`t have as much liquidity as Betfair. Liquidity is mandatory in betting exchanges. Top exchange no doubt, but I can`t see it rivaling with Betfair.