Argentina – Belgium

Argentina will hope to put on a better performance than against Switzerland, as Belgium is a dangerous team and looked very sharp against team USA in the Round 16.

Argentina remains my second favorite to win the World Cup, but let`s be honest, they did not play too well against Switzerland. Argentina struggled big time to create chances and sheer luck made them escape a penalty shootout. I expected a better performance from them, but all in all it was not a huge surprise that they struggled: Switzerland is a good team and Argentina was not particularly impressive in the Group stage either, winning all games by just 1 goal against poor opposition. One bright spot for the Pumas was Messi’s performance, the Barcelona striker is finally showing is best football in an Argentina shirt and he was the one who created the goal against Switzerland – no doubt he will be the main man again today.

Belgium was very similar to Argentina in terms of their performance in the group stage: 3 narrow wins against mediocre opposition, all coming in the last 10 minutes of games. However, Belgium went on to play much better against a decent USA side in the Round 16. Despite the score being 0-0 in regular time, Belgium could have won 3-0, they created chances at will and only a brilliant performance from Tim Howard denied them the win in regular time. Ironically, Belgium fell apart in overtime and USA dominated the last 25 minutes, but that was the time when the Devils gained qualification (2-1).

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Team news & lineups

Argentina will miss Rojo and Aguero is highli doubtful, while Belgium won’t be able to count on Vanden Borre. Nicola Rizzoli will be the referee.

Argentina: Romero – Zabaleta, F Fernández, Garay, Basanta – Gago, Mascherano, Di Maria – Messi, Lavezzi, Higuaín.

Belgium: Courtois – Alderweireld, Van Buyten, Kompany, Vertonghen – Witzel, De Bruyne, Fellaini – Mertens, Lukaku, E Hazard.

Looking at the above analysis you might say I fancy Belgium, but make no mistake, Argentina is still the better team and Belgium`s performance in the Round 16 was heavily favored by a disastrous defensive game of team USA, by far their worst game of the tournament – their positioning was simply dreadful, I don`t know what happened with that defense. This should be an evenly matched encounter but I do believe that Argentina’s superior class and experience will help the Pumas prevail in the end. They also have Messi, and should be able to improve their game in this late stage of the tournament.

All in all, I will not bet on the 1×2 market, the odds for Argentina to qualify are too low, the under (which I also fancy) does not hold good value either. My tip is going to be Messi to score. Listen, I`m not a fanboy or anything, but I was really impressed with how Messi handled himself in this World Cup. He scored in every group game (4 times so far) and against Switzerland he was the one who created the goal, he could have also finished it off himself. He tormented the Swiss defense for the whole game with his savvy dribbling and pace, creating some incredible highlights. He also takes penalties and free kicks, which is always key in the goalscoring market. In a match against a strong team like Belgium, he will no doubt be the go to guy, expected to make the difference. I placed 2 goalscoring bets in my whole ‘career’ and won both of them, so I`m confident of getting this one right as well, but of course I would not stake more than a medium stake on it. Again, I`m tipping Messi to score at anytime. Prediction: Argentina – Belgium 2-0.

Pick: Messi anytime goalscorer
Odds: 2.28 @ Unibet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 7.68
Event date: 5 July