Argentina – Georgia

Nicolas Sanchez Argentina conversion

Argentina and Georgia will square off in what has become a key match in Pool C after Georgia’s 17-10 upset of Tonga in the first round. The match will likely decide the second place in this Group, with the Pumas obvious favorites to achieve victory.

Argentina played an excellent first half against New Zealand, leading 13-12 at the break, even though that was facilitated by two yellow cards for the All Blacks. However, as expected, the Pumas could not keep the rhythm in the last 20-30 minutes and eventually lost 26-16, being a bit lucky to stay within 10 points. Argentina is now a legitimate power in World Rugby, but they still lack stamina to finish the job against top teams. The Pumas are also missing a couple of key players in this World Cup, which visibly hurt them against New Zealand.

Georgia got its biggest victory ever in their first match against Tonga, at least at World Cup level. Despite being priced at odds 5.00 to win, Georgia ended up withj a 17-10 victory, being in control of the match virtually from start to finish. The world class Georgian pack and forwards were brilliant, proving yet again that this team has massively improved and right now is very close to the likes of Italy and Scotland in terms of quality – arguably worthy of being given a chance to qualify for the Six Nations.

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Lineups:

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Juan Martin Hernandez, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Juan Manuel LeguizamΓ³n, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Marcos Ayerza

Georgia: 15 Merab Kvirikashvili, 14 Tamaz Mchedlidze, 13 Davit Kacharava, 12 Merab Sharikadze, 11 Giorgi Aptsiauri, 10 Lasha Malaguradze, 9 Vasil Lobzhanidze, 8 Mamuka Gorgodze (c), 7 Viktor Kolelishvili, 6 Giorgi Tkhilaishvili, 5 Konstantin Mikautadze, 4 Giorgi Nemsadze, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili

No match is similar to the other, but you would guess the bookies would have learned their lesson after setting huge handicaps that were constantly covered by the underdogs with 20-30 points to spare in this Rugby World Cup – I fell in this trap myself twice on New Zealand’s matches, to ruin an otherwise perfect 5 for 5 RWC record for me. However, again the bookmakers are giving the underdogs a massive spread. They also continue to underestimate Georgia despite impressive results and huge improvements made by this team in the last years.

Georgia played Argentina three times, in 2007, 2011 and 2013. They got better each time, losing by 30, 18 and 16 points respectively. In the 2011 RWC. Argentina won 25-7. Georiga is a solid side, improving every year and they should have more than enough to challenge an Argentina side that has a couple of key injuries and is coming after an exhausting game against the All Blacks. Also, both sides are rather slow-paced, particularly Georgia, so points and tries will not be in abundance – making a big spread even harder to cover for Argentina.

My tip is Georgia to cover the +20,5 point spread. Odds are dropping on this bet. The under could also be a good choice, but the handicap seems the better bet in my eyes. Prediction: Argentina – Georgia 23-11.

Pick: Georgia +20,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 25 September

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

    • Left home confident after the first half, though I did suspect Argentina will do some damage late on. But I was shocked by this. Some wrong refereeing decisions, but overall the pick proved to be horrible and I must admit that I am really surprised.

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