Argentina – Iran

Argentina will try to become the fifth team qualified for the knockout stage of the World Cup and for that to happen they will need to beat an Iran side that knows one thing, but knows it well: how to defend. Argentina is favored with odds around 1.12, the lowest in the tournament so far for a simple win.

Argentina was not particularly impressive against Bosnia, but that always going to be a tough game, as the Bosnians are a quality side with great fighting spirit. The 2-1 win was a good start to the competition and now Argentina will look to capitalize. The South Americans are looking pretty good under Alejandro Sabella, the manager finally put together a cohesive team, not only individual superstars. Of course, Messi and Aguero can still decide a match on their own, but Argentina has good tactical consistency as well.

Iran got a 0-0 draw against Nigeria, it was the ugliest match of the World Cup but a great performance from the Asians, who defended well and frustrated their more famous opponents. Iran is a non factor offensively, but on the defensive and they are very good: just two goals allowed in 8 matches in the Asian qualies, where they topped the group over South Korea. The squad is poor, composed mostly of domestic based players. It`s safe to say that Iran achieved their objective by qualifying to the World Cup and getting a draw, anything else would be a bonus.

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Team news & lineups

Both sides are healthy and Argentina will be boosted by the return of Higuain, who is likely to start.

Argentina: Romero – Zabaleta, Rojo, Garay, Fernandez – Gago, Mascherano, Di Maria – Higuain, Aguero, Messi

Iran: Haghighi – Montazeri, Pooladi, Hosseini, Sadeqi – Nekounam, Heydari, Teymourian, Hajsafi, Dejagah – Ghoochanneijhad

If Iran gets anything out of this match it will be one of the biggest surprises in World Cup history, but I really don`t think it will be the case. The quality difference between players is simply enormous here and I expect Argentina to score a couple of goals based solely on personal actions, nevermind good team play. Yes, Iran’s defense is solid, but it was never tested against an opponent of Argentina’s caliber. I will go on the favorite to cover a big handicap here, the kind of bet that usually is not to my liking, but my confidence is high this time. I trust Argentina to do well in this World Cup and my opinion is that sometimes the quality difference is just too big for other factors to have an influence. My tip is Argentina to win and cover the 2,25 asian handicap and I reckon Messi will get on the scoresheet for the second time in a row against such inferior opposition. Prediction: Argenina – Iran 3-0.

Pick: Argentina (-2,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.08 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.72
Event date: 21 June