Argentina – Jamaica

Argentina is already qualified after gaining 4 points in the first two matches, but needs a win in order to secure the first place in the group and they might need to win by more than 1 goal, depending on the result in the other game. For the second place, a draw would suffice. As far as Jamaica is concerned, they would need a miracle to go trough – a 2 goal win, combined with an Uruguay loss. Obviously, the Raggae Boyz are virtually knocked out of the tournament.

Argentina wasn’t that great so far, they were held to a draw by Paraguay and defeated Uruguay 1-0. If they were unlucky, they could have been equalized by Uruguay and be in real trouble now. However, it was an overall decent performance from Tata Martino’s side, who did what was expected and all in all they probably deserved to win both games.

Jamaica surely turned some heads in this Copa America, challenging both Uruguay and Paraguay, though eventually falling short 0-1 in both games. Jamaica clearly deserved to get more against Uruguay, but in the second match against Paraguay they seemed unable to make another realistic push and had virtually no chances to score. Despite the good showing, Jamaica still proved naive at many times, both in defense and in offense. Additionally, the Raggae Boyz seemed to tire in the second half of the Paraguay game.

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Team news & lineups:

Tata Martino might make some minor changes in the team selection, but overall the lineup should be close to the best one, as Argentina still has work to do in this group.

Argentina: Romero – Zabaleta, Garay, Otamendi, Rojo – Mascherano, Biglia- Pastore, Messi, Di Maria – Aguero

Jamaica: Kerr – Mariappa, Hector, Morgan, Lawrence – Austin, McAnuff – McCleary, Watson, Dawkins – Mattocks

At game time, a 1 goal win would probably be enough for Argentina to win the group, but I can see the Pumas going for goals here to get good morale for the next stage and taking advantage of Jamaica’s defensive immobility and vulnerabilities. The quick, pacey Argentinean strikers (led by Messi) will have their way with the massive and slow Jamaica men, I`m thinking about the likes of Rodolpho Austin (who`s a tank) or Wes Morgan.

I don’t think Jamaica will have too much left after fighting so hard in the first two games, especially not against a vastly superior opponent, which will use a very strong team selection. Sheer talent should make the difference, but motivation and matchup are also two factors that should make any kind of upset impossible. All in all, my tip is Argentina to win and cover a 2 goal asian handicap and I will invest maximum stakes on this bet – at the very worst, we should get our money back. Prediction: Argentina – Jamaica 3-0.

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Pick: Argentina (-2 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.50
Event date: 20 June