Argentina – New Zealand

New Zealand will book the Rugby Championship today with a win in Argentina, while the Pumas are on the last place with 4 losses after 4 rounds, despite pulling off arguably the best performances in their history.

Argentina has kept on improving in the last couple of season and the inclusion in the former Tri-Nations has helped them a lot. Still without a win (ever) in the tournament, the Pumas were incredibly competitive this year, losing the 4 matches by an average of less than 9 points and almost beating South Africa. However, the hosts lacked again that killer instinct and have again faded away in the latter stages of matches. Today they will take confidence of having played a good match in New Zealand a couple of weeks ago, but even in that match they lost steam and ended up losing by 19.

New Zealand will be without Aron Cruden today who got drunk and failed to make the flight, but they will get a huge boost by the return of Whitelock and Kaino. There is great anticipation and enthusiasm around this game, as New Zealand is set to keep the undefeated run in the Rugby Championship and book a 3rd consecutive title. Needless to say the All Blacks are just one class above anyone else in Rugby Union right now.

Lineups:

Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Juan Imhoff, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Juan Martín Hernández, 11 Manuel Montero, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe, 6 Benjamin Macome, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Mariano Galarza, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy, 1 Marcos Ayerza.

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Earlier in this competition New Zealand played one of the worst matches I ever saw them play on a rain soaked pitch that did not favor them (sloppy handling with the wet ball) but still won by 19 against Argentina and missed some absolutely incredible opportunities to add another 1-2 tries (also failed to convert 4 out of 8 field goals!). Argentina played great and still should have lost by +30 … I remember Dagg (not sure if it was him) escaping clear to the try line but preferring an easy pass which he missed. Indeed, Argentina is always much stronger at home, but I don`t feel home court advantage can be a sufficient advantage to hold off what is sure to be a much, much better New Zealand side, more motivated and with key players back. Also Argentina is well known to fade away not only toward the end of games, but also toward the end of the Rugby Championship. A 14,5 point spread does not do New Zealand justice here, they covered this spread in each of the last 6 meetings against Argentina, inluding a 33-15 win in La Plata last year.

Expect New Zealand to keep tight at the back and destroy Argentina with their skill, power and handling. It might be close at half time, but the visitors are set to get some easy running tries when Argentina eventually gets tired (which is always happening and inevitable considering the effort they put in). My tip is New Zealand to cover the 14,5 point spread. The odds are dropping and the line is moving towards 15,5. Prediction: Argentina – New Zealand 16 – 37.

Pick: New Zealand (-14,5)
Odds: 1.91 @ Bet365
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.1
Event date: 27 September