Argentina – New Zealand

Argentina will host New Zealand in front of a sellout crowd in Buenos Aires, and the All Blacks are obviously massive favorites coming into this Rugby Championship Round 5 clash.

The Pumas have lost all 4 matches so far in the Rugby Championship by 17 or more points, and the hosts are on the back of a 20-45 drubbing at the hands of Australia in Canberra, although they actually led at half time in that match. Surprisingly, Argentina’s best performance in the tournament came three weeks ago in New Zealand, when they went toe to toe with the All Blacks until the 60th minute, losing 22-39 – so that will be a reason for optimism, but maybe the only one.

New Zealand is coming after a historic 57-0 win against South Africa two weeks ago, a result which confirmed the fact that the All Blacks are still, and by far, the team to beat in World Rugby. Questions were asked if New Zealand 2017 is the same team that demolished everybody last year, as the All Blacks had some ups and downs this season, but the win against South Africa answered most critics. And even if the All Blacks were at times below their best in this Rugby Championship, they still won 4 out of 4 and are on track for a second consecutive Grand Slam.

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Team news & lineups:

Argentina will make three changes to the lineup that lost in Australia two weeks ago. New Zealand will shuffle the pack ahead of this clash, resting a number of players.

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Matias Moroni, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 7 Tomas Lezana, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Kane Hames

Despite the fact that New Zealand will give a breather to a few key guys, the starting XI seems pretty good. From 9 to 15 it`s actually an excellent lineup which could be considered first choice at any time, and the fact that Smith and Barrett start at 9 and 10 guarantees the fact that New Zealand will not lose any of their renowned offensive dynamism. With Ioane at No. 11, look for some spectacular fast paced tries here.

The question marks (if there are any) regarding the All Blacks lineup are in the scrum, particularly with the usual locks Retallick and Whitelock being given a rest. On the bright side, captain Kieran Ried retains his place at No.8. The forwards selected will need to be at their best if they are to compete with the strong Argentinean pack.

Fortunately for New Zealand, the Argentinean pack has lost some of its groove, and it`s not as scary as in the past – proof of that being the fact that the South African scrum clearly dominated them in the first two rounds of the Rugby Championship. The New Zealand forwards should be able to hold their own here, allowing the All Blacks to impose their vast superiority in the wide game.

Recent policy changes have weakened the Pumas, as they can`t call up players who are plying their trade abroad, this being the main reason for which Argentina is looking worse this year than in the past. They lost by 22 and 18 in their two matches against South Africa, they lost by 17 in New Zealand and by 25 in Australia. As usual, they collapsed physically in the last 20-30 minutes of each game, and chances are that will happen again in this clash.

The Pumas will put in a lot of fight in the first half here, but they just don`t have enough quality or stamina to compete with a team like New Zealand. Losing by only 17 points three weeks ago was a fluke, and the Pumas might realize that the hard way in this reverse leg.

Obviously Argentina will be the more motivated team here, but in a similar situation last season, a stronger Argentina team, facing a New Zealand side that made more changes to the starting XV than it will make now, lost by 19 points at home – and it was a very fortunate result. New Zealand was leading by 20 or so early and it looked like they will win by 50, but the second half saw Argentina getting a scrum in New Zealand’s 22, and it was pretty much just scrum resets for tens of minutes, yellow cards, and the match stayed within 20 points. Argentina had no business losing that match by less than 25 points and I acknowledged that at the time, despite betting on Argentina +19,5 in that game. Point is, extra motivation can only help you to a certain extent.

Look for New Zealand to pick up where they left off against South Africa, and pick apart Argentina here with their wide game. The All Blacks should hold their own in the scum and completely obliterate the Pumas on the wings, with Barrett and Smith running the show.

Argentina did great to lose by only 17 points in New Zealand three weeks ago, but that was (by far) their best match of the season, and New Zealand’s worst. Even with a few key players rested, this All Blacks lineup looks scary good and should have more enough to trump a shaky Argentina. I wouldn`t be surprised if this gets ugly, so my tip is New Zealand to cover the 21.5 handicap. Odds are dropping, and the point spread is moving towards 22.5 points. Prediction: Argentina – New Zealand 10 – 46.

Pick: New Zealand -21,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 30 September