Argentina – New Zealand

Argentina will take on New Zealand in the 5th round of the Rugby Championship, as the All Blacks will try to avoid back to back defeats for the first time since 2011.

Argentina has been excellent in this tournament and particularly the last three games showed an unleashed Pumas side, as they defeated South Africa by 13, lost by 22 in New Zealand (in a tighter match than the score suggests) and claimed a 4 point win on the road in Australia. The appointment of ex Jaguares coach Mario Ledesma has been a real blessing, as the Pumas are now playing their best rugby after struggling in the last year when Hourcade was still in charge. With their current form, they can afford to dream about claiming their first ever win against New Zealand.

The All Blacks have been their usual impressive selves in this tournament, handing Australia two heavy beatings and dispatching Argentina at home while also resting some key players. However, New Zealand suffered a shock in the previous round two weeks ago, as they lost 34-36 at home against New Zealand. It was the first loss for the All Blacks in the Rugby Championship since 2015 and even though they were unlucky to suffer defeat, the result has still raised questions (probably unwarranted) about certain players and coach Hansen.

Bet on Argentina vs. New Zealand and claim your 100% (120 Eur) freebet at LSbet!

Team news & lineups:

Argentina will only make two changes to the lineup which beat Australia two weeks ago. Star winger Ramiro Moyano is the only new injury for the Pumas.

New Zealand will field an extremely strong back line, but will use rotation in their forwards department. It is a bit worrying that the All Blacks will not start 3 of their most impactful players (Reid, Retallick, Aaron Smith). The first two will not even be on the bench.

Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Jeronimo De La Fuente, 12 Bautista Ezcurra, 11 Matias Moroni, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Luke Whitelock, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Samuel Whitelock (c), 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe

New Zealand will no doubt be fired up after the loss against South Africa. Facing the All Blacks after they lost a game will be a scary prospect for Argentina, especially considering that New Zealand also has the opportunity to win the Rugby Championship title (unless South Africa loses earlier in the day, a case in which the title would have already been secured).

New Zealand has also been pretty impressive in Argentina recently, winning on the road easier than at home. The closest Argentina got in the last 5 games was 18 points. Today`s point spread is set at 16.5 points.

However, New Zealand will have some serious hurdles to overcome in this one.

There are very few irreplaceable players in the New Zealand squad, maybe 5 or 6 at most, but Aaron Smith, Retallick and Reid might be three of them. The fact that all three are out (although Smith will be on the bench) has the potential to hurt the All Blacks.

Then there is the weather. Thunderstorms are taking place in Buenos Aires this Saturday and even if it`s unknown if it will rain come game time, it will still be wet and slippery. This is not good news for New Zealand’s style of quick rugby with offloads and risky passes.

The conditions will favor a physical game, a forwards battle, and Argentina will relish that. Not only are the Pumas world famous for their scrum and forwards, but New Zealand is weakened in that area coming into this match due to all the changes, and because Retallick and Reid are out.

While New Zealand remains by far the scariest team in rugby despite last round`s loss, and while Argentina is probably a bit overrated right now after narrowly escaping with that win in Australia, fact is that the weather and New Zealand’s absences could make this a closer game than most people expect.

Look for Argentina to be dominant in the scrum and the forwards battle, while New Zealand will surely score a couple of vintage tries but will suffer with handling in the wet conditions.

Argentina is impressive right now and in this weather they can make a game out of this if their stamina holds (and it did hold in every Rugby Championship game this year). New Zealand would be happy with any win, as the big match for them will only come next week in South Africa (no matter if the championship is decided or not until then). My tip is Argentina to cover the +16,5 handicap. Prediction: Argentina – New Zealand 23 – 32.

Pick: Argentina +16,5
Odds: 1.95 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.55
Event date: 29 September