Argentina – South Africa

The Rugby championship (former Tri-Nations) kicked off last week with victories for South Africa and New Zealand. Springboks played the same opponent in the first round, Argentina, only at home. The score was a monumental 73-13 win for South Africa.

The Springboks are without a doubt the second best team in the world right now and the way they have been improving, they can even challenge New Zealand for the title in this tournament. South Africa had some tough time in the last years due to a one-dimensional kicking game style of play, but especially bad luck, losing matches they dominated. The trend changed since 2012, with today`s visitors bringing in some new faces, expanding their game beyond kicking and finally reaching their immense potential.

The Pumas have came a long way since the team that was losing to every decent nation out there, and are now one of the best teams in the world. But they are still at least one level below the likes of New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, France, England or the other top class teams (Wales, maybe Ireland). On top of this, Argentina is in a somewhat of a rebuilding process, and they are not at their best at the moment. Last week`s 60 point humiliation came after a string of bad results. They are on a 5 game losing streak, all 5 games lost by at least 17 points difference.

That 73-13 win of South Africa against Argentina in the Rugby Championship opener showed a huge gap in class and match-up between the teams. Home-court advantage is a huge asset in rugby, and Argentina has always played well at home, so for sure we won’t see a score of such epic proportions again. But. There is only so much you can do and change in one week, so how much better can Argentina be than in the 13-73 defeat in South Africa? The manager will mix the squad up again, which will only further the lack of organization and cohesion in this rebuilding team. The defeat will also have a huge moral impact, since that kind of humiliation will surely make the Pumas feel inferior to the opposition when the game will start.

Probable line-ups:

Argentina: 15 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Felipe Contepomi (captain), 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Mariano Galarza, 4 Julio Farías Cabello, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guiñazú,1 Marcos Ayerza.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Bjorn Basson, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

The Argentinians are much, much weaker than the Springboks at the forwards position, and you just can win if you are dominated so clearly in that department. Expect the SA pack to again dismantle the argentinean one. Note than in the last game played in Argentina (last year), the Pumas managed to get a draw, but much has changed since then.

A small improvement for the hosts will probably happen, and as I said home-court advantage will make a difference, but South Africa is so much better, so well matched-up with Argentina and are in fabulous form. Really no contest at the moment between these two teams and so another big win is expected, I`m guessing maybe 20-30 points for the visitors. I`m going with the Springboks to win by at least 15, even if there is still a 13,5 handicap available (but at lower odds). My input is that 15 should be covered easily, so no point in losing value.

I`m looking for something like Argentina – South Africa 16 – 40.

Pick: South Africa (-14,5)
Odds: 2.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 24 August