Argentina – South Africa

Argentina and South Africa will square off in the second round of the 2016 Rugby Championship, in Salta, after South Africa won in dramatic fashion at home against the Pumas, 30-23, in the previous round.

Argentina was very close to claim a historic win last week in Nelspruit, but they blew away a 23-13 lead and eventually lost via a last minute South Africa try. It was yet another game in which the Pumas showed how strong they have become, but yet again they collapsed in the latter stages of the clash – something that is happening time and time again against the top Nations and pretty much the only reason why Argentina is still not as good and consistent as New Zealand, South Africa or Australia (though they might be better than Australia at the current moment).

South Africa isn`t looking great right now, as the team is currently rebuilding. Their performance last week was rather poor and it was really more about Argentina losing that game than South Africa winning it. The team seems to lack chemistry, there are plenty of mistakes, both in terms of handling and in terms of tactics, as well as kicking. That could also be attributed to the fact that South Africa has to play their 3rd option at No.10. Sure, the team is still strong as hell, but weaker than last year, that is for sure.

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Team news & lineups:

Neither team is quite as its best in the start of this Rugby Championship. Argentina misses key players like Bosch, Imhoff and Ayerza, while the Springboks continue to be without their first two choices at No.10, Pollard and Lambie and also miss Redelinghuys, who got injured last week. Actually, Koch coming in instead of Redelinghuys will be the only change either of these teams will make compared to the lineups that took the field in the first round.

Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matías Orlando, 12 Juan Martín Hernández, 11 Manuel Montero, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Matías Alemanno, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro

South Africa: 15 Johan Goosen, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Argentina has never won at home against South Africa, but this will most likely be the best chance they ever had and I tend to believe they will take it. South Africa is not in a good moment, they are not playing well and the atmosphere is not one of confidence / excitement. On the other hand, Argentina is brimming with confidence, everybody’s spirits are high and they know they have a huge shot here. With the fans behind them, it might just be enough to avoid another late collapse and claim victory. The last game in Salta was played in 2014 and the Boks won by just 2 points.

You can really argue that Argentina is the real favorite ahead of this game, the difference between them and South Africa in terms of quality is pretty much gone, at least as the starting 15 is concerned. With the Boks rebuilding and not looking great, there`s every reason to expect Argentina to win at home.

I like the matchup between Sanchez and Jantijes at No.10. Sanchez is the more accomplished international player here and he could give the new Springbok more than he can handle. Sanchez’s kicking should be an advantage for Argentina, something they never had before when meeting South Africa and if that will be the case, the match is almost lost for the Boks. Their main advantage over Argentina has always been the kicking game, because the Pumas are more or less better both in the scrum and on the wings.

Argentina missing 3 key guys like like Bosch, Imhoff and Ayerza is a big deal for them and that`s pretty much the only problem I see with my bet on the Pumas. However, they looked so good last week even without these men and South Africa has it`s own problems. Argentina should be able to cope well again without them.

Expect a very close, possibly high scoring game and I can see Argentina edging it in the end. My tip will be Argentina to cover the 3,5 point handicap, a bet that also gives some protection in case the Pumas have another blackout in the last 10 minutes or so. Prediction: Argentina – South Africa 28 – 24.

Pick: Argentina +3,5
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.70
Event date: 27 August