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The Springboks will try to make it 2 wins in 2 games in the 2017 Rugby Championship, as they travel to Salta to take on an Argentina team which they beat by 22 points last week in South Africa.
Argentina was clearly outplayed by the Springboks last week, and their performance in Porth Elizabeth was not great at all. The Pumas were always on the back foot, couldn`t find territory or possession, and they were only dangerous on a couple of fluke counterattacks started from their own half. The 15-37 loss came as a confirmation of Argentina’s slight decline, after the Pumas had an unimpressive Summer, losing twice to England “B” and beating Georgia by just 16 points.
After an absolutely disgraceful 2016, South Africa seems to be on the rise this year. The Boks got a lot of praise as they comfortably beat France three times in the June tests, but there were still question marks about their true level, since France was missing a few key players and looked tired after a long season. Most of the questions were answered in last week`s win over Argentina, with South Africa playing a very good game of rugby – controlling the match from start to finish and playing clean, without mistakes.
Bet on Argentina vs. South Africa and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet!Team news & lineups:
Argentina will make no less than 6 changes in the starting lineup that lost last week – some of them due to injury, some of them by coach’s choice. This is not a good sign, as the Pumas aren`t known for having a strong bench. Cronje is the only absentee for South Africa and the only change made to last week’s lineup.
Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Ramiro Moyano, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Juan Martin Hernandez, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 7 Tomas Lezana, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matías Alemanno, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera
South Africa: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Raymond Rhule, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Uzair Cassiem, 7 Jaco Kriel, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
This is clearly a different version of South Africa in comparison to the horrible team which played last year. The Boks have cleaned up their act, their are not making mistakes and Elton Jantjies has evolved in a reliable kicker and playmaker, becoming an asset instead of a liability.
Argentina on the other hand is paying the price of denying eligibility for their stars who play abroad, in an attempt to make the Jaguares franchise a force in Super Rugby. The plan backfired, with Jaguares (basically the Argentina national team) performing very poorly in the club competition, and with Argentina suffering without some of their key guys like Bosch, Imhoff or most recently Isa.
What stood out the most last week was the fact that South Africa’s scrum dominated the Argentinian scrum, and did it pretty clearly. There`s nothing which suggests that could change this time around and without a dominant scrum, Argentina has few options to trouble the Boks. The Pumas entire gameplan is constructed around their world famous strong scrum, so the absence of that factor makes it virtually impossible for them to control the game in other ways. Even if the Pumas improve in this department, maybe they can match the Boks scrum, but it`s hard to believe they can completely turn the tides around – which is what they would need.
Another clean game with no blatant handling errors for South Africa should be more than enough for another win against the Pumas, and most likely a rather comfortable one. Of course, playing in Salta is always a difficult task, and Argentina is much more dangerous at home than away, but this South Africa team is simply much better and more consistent – while Argentina doesn`t inspire quite the same strength and energy as in the last years.
Argentina barely managed to win last year’s Rugby Championship home game against South Africa, 26-24, via a last minute penalty – and that was against arguably the worst South African team in the last 10-15 years, and with South Africa botching a few easy penalties (a common occurrence for Jantjies last year, but not this year – he was brilliant last week). Argentina was also a better team than they are now.
Now with South Africa’s clear improvement and with Argentina taking a step backwards, also looking at how the Springboks dominated the Pumas last week, it seems highly unlikely for Argentina to even come close of repeating last year’s historic win. The 6 changes made in the lineup, for various reasons, might also cost Argentina – the Pumas don`t have a strong bench and the lineup seems weaker than last week.
Look for South Africa to impose their superior skillset and power, controlling the game tactically and territorially from the start. Argentina showed extreme lack of discipline last week and there`s only so much they can improve on that (wouldn`t be surprised if they get a yellow card at some point), so expect South Africa to get plenty of penalties for territory or 3 points.
Even if Argentina’s energy at home will allow them to keep it close for 50 minutes or so (which I doubt), the Boks should still run away with it in the last half hour, being a fitter team and with a better bench. My tip is South Africa to cover the 6,5 point spread, which is starting to move towards 7,5. Odds currently between 1.8 and 1.91 on this bet, I think 1.91 is great value but 1.8 is worth it as well. Prediction: Argentina – South Africa 18 – 31.
Pick: South Africa -6,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 26 August
